Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2012

Stat of the Day 23/10

Stat of the Day 23/10

Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2012

No joy yesterday, as Breezolini never really got going and eventually trooped home back in 9th place of 15 runners, despite having been backed in from our advised 8/1 all the way down to 7/2 favouritism. It is, of course, often very easy, to become despondent about picking losers, but as somebody ( who is far more wise about these things than I am!) keeps telling me: if you're backing horses at double their SP, that's the route to long-term profitability. I've no doubts that he's right, too!

Today, we're going to attempt to turn back time in tackling a Class 5 Fillies handicap over 7 furlongs on yet more heavy ground. We're currently expecting 16 runners to go to post for the...

3.20 Yarmouth

Last Tuesday's original selection for SotD fell foul of the recent wet weather and the Newcastle meeting was abandoned, leaving me to keep an eye out for the horse's reappearance. Anyway, it would seem that trainer James Given has found what he deems a suitable race for the selection Clumber Place. Much of last week's stats/info remain relevant, so here's a quick reminder about this one:

Clumber Place has an excellent record over 7 furlongs, having won six times from 24 attempts, harvesting a huge 63.25pts profit from those races (263.5% of stakes). Her record on heavy ground is also impressive, albeit from a much smaller sample size: two wins from three for 4.5pts profit with her record over 7 furlongs on heavy being two from two.

She does, admittedly, produce her best form at Newcastle, but I believe she was primed and ready to go well last week and that she's sent here as a next best alternative. This "theory" is further backed up by James Given's usual reluctance to come to the Norfolk track: just 5 runners in the last two years, whilst this is jockey Graham Lee's first visit to the course. Graham was, of course, on board Clumber Place last time out when she won a 7f Handicap on heavy ground at Newcastle some 20 days ago.

Yet for all this, Yarmouth does have some similarities with the Newcastle strip, they're both flattish galloping tracks with a straight 7 furlong strip and despite coming up short on her only two previous visits here (far from ideal conditions for her on both occasions) today looks tailor-made for this 6 yr old filly.

Today's race looks a competitive affair, but it doesn't seem to have the same quality as the one we originally highlighted last week and this has been reflected in the price. We were looking at an E/W bet last Tuesday and with 16 runners paying 4 places, the same would be nice today.

However, the best we're getting this morning seems to be the 9/2 BOG on offer from BetVictor and I think that's about right (to within a half point or so). She may well shorten up during the day, so I'm staking the full point on Clumber Place to win at 9/2 BOG with BetVictor, but as always, I recommend that you take the time to...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.20 Yarmouth.

3 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2012

  1. Chris

    Hi Chris,
    Thanks for providing a great service here, I’ve been recording the details of your service since the start of this month along with your staking advice. Obviously you’re going to hit more places than wins, so I decided to mess around with the staking and try 0.25pts for the win and 0.75pts for the place. It puts this month in a decent profit, so I was wondering how that would affect the profits since SOTD started? Maybe somebody else has a couple more months recorded and could shed some light, any response would be appreciated.

  2. Johnny5

    Chris’

    My unmathical view would be – poorer for that staking system. For sure over this last month there’s been more placed horses than winners (a lot to do w going and unreliablity) , SotD has a history over the longer period of nailing good priced winners that would have surely dented their 120+ points profit YTD if there was only a 1/4 point on the win . Go for gold fella !

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