Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2014

I remain firmly on the cold list after Don Pooleoni somewhat disappointingly ran out of steam late on yesterday. Despite taking a low (for SotD!) price of 9/4, we were at least able to beat the book as he came home in 5th place at 2/1, a good 31 lengths behind the relatively surprising winner.

A real test of stamina awaits us today in the...

1.50 Warwick:

Three of David Pipe's last six runners have been winners with two finishing as runner-up and he has a record of 20 winners from 96 (20.% SR) at Warwick, producing level stakes profits of 12.82pts (+13.4% ROI). With all odds-against runners priced below 8/1, his full Warwick record is 13/43 (30.2%SR) for 19.13pts (+44.5% ROI).

Just the one runner for David today and the 5/1 BOG shot Franklin Roosevelt competes in the type of race the Pipe excels at. It's a 3m2f chase on soft/heavy ground, not one for the weak or faint hearted: this promises to be a real test.

Since January 2008, David Pipe's chasers over 3 miles and beyond on ground worse than good have won 49 times from 269, a strike rate of 18.2%. this in turn has led to level stakes profits of 161.8pts or 60.1% of stakes. Of these 269 runners, if we looked more closely at those running in our usual SotD odds range (13/8 to 6/1), we get 27 winners from 95 (28.4% SR) for 48.75pts profit, equal to 51.3% of stakes.

It's currently Soft (Heavy in places) here, but it would be no surprise if it wasn't heavy going come race time, especially with all the rain in the air and Mr Pipe's record with chasers over these longer trips on heavy is 15/71 (21.1% SR) for 56.25pts (+79.2% ROI), of which we have 7/27 (25.9% SR) for 13.37pts (+49.5% ROI) priced between 13/8 and 6/1.

Franklin Roosevelt is 211 over this trip and 91111 with Tom Scudamore on his back. The horse has also won two of his last three outings at this level (Class 4) and drops back in Class after a decent 3rd at C3 followed by a reasonable 8th of 13 (only 8 lengths down) in a Class 2 contest over 3m 5.5f at Sandown. He's down 3lbs, 2 grades and 3.5f today which should all play to his strengths.

Nine runners go to post for this one and this horse has five wins from eleven in fields of ten runners or less, two wins from his last three left-handed runs, four from his last seven chases and he's five from nine in blinkers.

So, we've plenty of incidental stats to back up the main reasonings behind the selection and the current 5/1 BOG at Stan James makes for an interesting 1pt win bet on Franklin Roosevelt today.

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