Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2013
No joy yesterday, as Sound Investment proved to be anything but.
Our 9/2 shot drifted a little out to an SP of 5/1 and although he ran a reasonable sort of race, he possibly expended too much energy early on and had nothing to give when needed later. The end result was a 17-length defeat back in 5th place.
We're off to Wales today for a bit of a longshot in the...
When you sit and think of the trainers with a better record here at Ffos Las than they have anywhere else, you probably wouldn't be thinking about Mark Bradstock, yet Ffos Las has become a bit of a goldmine for him of late.
He hasn't got the best string of horses in training, nor has he got the biggest and he doesn't send too many here either, but...
...of the nine horses he has sent here, his record reads U122P1114 with the two horses that failed to complete both being 33/1 no-hopers. So, if we disregard those, we have 4 winners from 7 for Betfair SP level stakes profits of 18.71pts (+267.3% ROI) with six of the seven making the frame for an E/W return of 21.75pts.
It is admittedly a small sample size, but a trainer with such a small outfit isn't going to want to send any horses on a 300-mile round trip if he wasn't expecting to pick something up. There are more convenient racecourses for him to use from his Oxfordshire base, so I'm guessing he picks these Ffos Las runners very carefully.
With that in mind, I'm interested in his sole runner of the day, the 12/1 shot Super Villan, who now competes here over 2m5f on soft ground.
The trip won't be an issue, he has won at 2m6f and stays 3 miles when needed and the ground is in his favour. He won on his only run on heavy ground (3m at Chepstow in March) and his record on soft reads 22261, with that last win coming here over 2m6f in April. He struggled in his next outing over 3 miles and a half furlong and was pulled up on his chase debut at Kempton 18 days ago.
As a result of those last two runs, he has been dropped to a very workable mark of 112 (those wins in the spring were off 114 & 119) and the presence of Nico de Boinville in the saddle means there's another 5lbs to come off today.
Super Villan looks to be built for chasing and it is hoped that he'll come for the experience of that run at Kempton in the month and the record of his jockey here at this track is also a bonus.
Mr de Boinville has only raced here five times previously, but he has yet to finish outside the first three home in a record reading 31111, with the last of those rides being Super Villan's course win here in April. Nico is 3 from 3 when riding here for Mark Bradstock.
Blinkers are applied today to focus the horse on what will be a stiff challenge, but if his jumping holds up, he has the stamina to snatch a place or even better and as such I've placed a 0.5pts E/W bet on Super Villan at 12/1 BOG with SkyBet. BetVictor are also matching this price at the moment, so why not...