Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2012

Stat of the Day 22/11/12

Stat of the Day 22/11/12

Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2012

Livia's Dream came very close to providing us with a much-needed winner last night, as she gamely tried to take the race by the scruff of the neck. It's quite possible that she set off for home a touch too early and it's equally possible that the tussle for the lead took a little too much out of her as she was overhauled in the final yards by a fast finishing 33/1 winner. This meant that it was another E/W placer at an SP of 7/1, backed in from our advised 11/1. A small profit of 0.88pts on the day for us.

The weather continues to play merry with racing today and we've lost the meetings at Hereford, Wincanton & Thurles already, leaving us with just a NH card at Market Rasen and the evening Kempton meeting. We're hardly spoiled for choice, so we'll stay put and look at the day's final contest: a 7-furlong, 14-runner handicap which is the...

7.40 Kempton

In the last twelve months or so Michael Squance has had 16 runners in handicap contests here at Kempton, yielding six winners (37.5%) and a total of 10 placed horses (62.5%). Backing each of the 16 runners to a £10 stake has generated a profit of £510.

The bare stats don't always tell the full story, of course and it must be mentioned that the figures are skewed slightly by one horse, today's SotD selection and Michael's only runner anywhere today: Diplomatic.

Diplomatic is a horse that just loves the A/W surfaces as all of his five career wins have been on Polytrack. Aside from a solitary 33/1 win at Lingfield in February, his other four victories have all been here at Kempton, where his record reads 11221012 for 44pts profit. He is 3 from 5 (plus 1 x 2nd) over today's course and distance.

Michael Squance's record excluding Diplomatic is still creditable, but this horse is rapidly turning into a Kempton specialist. I don't envisage the drop back to 7 furlongs to cause undue problems, but this is offset by the fact that our selection is bottom weight in today's race.

At 9.55am the best price available was 11/2 BOG generally, so it's a straight 1pt win bet on Diplomatic at 11/2 BOG. I'm using Paddy Power today, but you can take your pick this morning by availing yourselves of the opportunity to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 7.40 Kempton

13 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2012

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      We’ve not actually had an outright winner since the 8th October (42 selections), but the majority of selctions are double digit odds E/W bets. Of the 42 non-winners, we’ve still had 13 successful E/W bets.
      SotD is a long term plan and we’ve just entered our second year with over 120pts profit in the bag.
      SotD is a free stats-based service that I’m not here to defend, you either take it or you leave it. The current negativity on here is quite overwhelming/unjustified.

      1. bully's left foot

        Hi Chris, I agree the negative comments keep coming mainly from the newby followers who obviously have not seen the best of sotd. As you say it is FREE. Just hope the negativity does not drive you and Matt away from sotd.

      2. Jim


        I think this is a great service and it’s FREE.

        Nobody has to back them and personally I have been in and out. I also like to see the bigger price each way jobs.

        Livia’s Dream at Kempton on Wednesday was a good example,which delivered a profit.

        Keep them coming.


    2. Mike

      Hi Gary,
      You are just unlucky in that you have started following these during a bad run – although as Chris pointed out with the place returns it has not actually been that bad. I have followed SOTD since March this year and have made just shy of 80 points profit, so I recommend you keep the faith as no doubt the winners will return soon. Good luck today Chris!

  1. Johnny5

    These guys are pros and have a successful record over longer than any get rich mentality you might have.

    This weather I believe is killing form and stats predictions but I reduce my stakes and stay loyal to the fact that these guys are good

    And they are.

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