Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2014

I suggested yesterday that at 6/1 Guishan could offer a safety-first proposition as an E/W bet and so it proved as he finished 3rd at an SP of 5/1. She ran well enough in the first half of the race, leading until around halfway, but then she seemed to bottom out for a while, showing no sign of making all as expected.

She did rally and stayed on strongly, but was never getting to the front two. A curate's egg of a performance really, good in parts.

Well done to those of you on the E/W bet, but for the record it's another defeat.

Same venue, different code for Wednesday's selection, which runs in the...

2.20 Southwell:

There might be a feeling that I'm overdoing/overworking the stat side of finding a suitable selection, so I'm stripping it all back to basics today with the selection of Don Pooleoni, who can be backed at 9/4 BOG in most places.

This horse is trained by the talented and increasingly successful Harry Fry, one of those rare breed of trainers who you can back blindly at any odds and make a profit. In fact, if you'd wagered £10 on every one of Harry's 136 runners to date, you'd have profited to the tune of £872.60 so far. That's a 64.2% return above your stakes and this comes from a 30.9% strike rate (42 winners from 136) at all odds, with just two of those winners being priced longer than 12/1.

Harry's go-to jockey is Noel Fehily and he takes the ride on Don Pooleoni today, looking to improve an already impressive record on the Fry horses. That record currently stands at 28 winners from 82 rides, a strike rate of 34.2% generating level stakes profits of 62.25pts, an ROI of 75.9%. In the last five weeks Noel has ridden ten of Harry's horses, winning on six occasions, plus a 2nd and a 3rd place. The two unplaced horses were both 16/1 outsiders, not expected to do much.

Don Pooleoni is Harry's only runner today and despite a 0/12 record is well set to break his duck here.  Aside from falling on both attempts over larger obstacles, this horse has run well over hurdles and in bumpers without quite getting there. Since the summer of 2012 and excluding those two efforts in chases, his record reads 244324U, it was a bit of a soft way to lose his 10lb claiming rider last time out when a more experienced hand would probably have made a better effort at staying on, but otherwise he's always there or thereabouts.

This probably represents his best chance at getting off the mark and as such I'm placing a 1pt win bet on Don Pooleoni at 9/4 BOG. I've used SkyBet, simply because I had some football winnings in there, but for your pick of the bookies...

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