Stat of the Day, 21st November 2012
An early post this morning, as I'm off out to visit my mother shortly, it's her birthday today!
We got a gutsy battling type of run from Just Josie yesterday. Nothing was going to beat the favourite in that race, but our mare plugged on gamely (ably assisted and cajoled by Marc Goldstein, I should add) and barring a fall had guaranteed herself at least a place entering the home run. She pecked on landing 2 out which caused a loss of momentum which contributed to her losing 2nd place and she/we settled for a 3rd place finish at an SP of 10/1. I thought she'd have been shorter than that, but no complaints here, nice to add another 0.75pts to the bottom line.
It's a tricky day today, Warwick has fallen foul of the weather and heavy ground is forecast at both Fairyhouse and Hexham. With the increased likelihood of yet more rain at both venues, the prudent alternative is to go to the all-weather. To this end, we're off to Sunbury-on-Thames for the evening meeting and a 14-runner Class 4 handicap over a mile and a half. No concern about the going here for the...
It's just under two years (two years next Tuesday!) since Ed Walker sent his first runner to compete on Kempton's polytrack: Riggins was a 4/1 winner that day and since then Ed has continued to visit the winners' enclosure with regularity.
Six winners from 30 is his current record at the track and these six winners have generated profits of 7.25pts (24.2% of stakes) and a total of thirteen runners have made the frame. This 43.33% place strike rate has meant that £10 E/W backers would have increased their bankroll by £85: a 14.2% return on investments.
His record in handicap events here is even better: 5 wins from 20 makes a 25% win ratio, leading to 12.25pts profit (61.25% of stakes), whilst the £10 E/W backers have made some £202, which represents a healthy return of just over 50% courtesy of a place strike rate of 55% (11/20 placed).
In true SotD tradition, Ed Walker sends just one runner to Kempton this evening (or anywhere today for that matter!) and it is, of course, a handicapper: the bay filly Livia's Dream.
Livia's Dream is a lightly raced filly: just nine races to date (3 as a 2yr old and six times this year). She has had some success already, winning twice and making the frame on a further two occasions. She seems to have shown a preference for the A/W, where her record reads 310. The first two of those races were both here at Kempton, finishing 3rd at 9/1 before winning at 13/2 over course and distance. She can be excused the duck egg, as that came in a listed event at Lingfield three weeks ago, where she finished 10th of 14 at 80/1 behind Tempus Fugit.
So, we've a trainer with a good record at the course and the horse herself has shown a liking for the surface. Her recent good form has led to a ride in the weights and this has been reflected in the price available to us today.
At 9.15am the best price available was 11/1 BOG with Bet365, she has flickered between 10/1 and 12/1 with several bookmakers this morning, but my advised bet is 0.5pts E/W on Livia's Dream at 11/1 BOG with bet365, but as the odds seem a little volatile at present, you can always wait and then...