Stat of the Day, 21st March 2014
I think the less said, about the performance of Loud on Thursday, the better. It was a truly awful showing as the 5/2 favourite (advised at 7/2) failed to beat a single rival home.
The only "highlight" for me was that we comfortably beat the market once and although things aren't going my way at present, beating the book with value prices is the key to long-term profitability and we're still well ahead of the game.
That said, it would be nice to get back amongst the winners, so I turn to a famous name for some help in the...
Where Paul Nicholls sends last time out winner Dormello Mo out to tackle a 16.5f handicap hurdle, carrying bottom weight and further aided by the 3lb claim of Harry Derham.
Over the last five years, Mr Nicholls has enjoyed a great deal of success here in Berkshire, with a strike rate of 22.7% from all his runners priced between 13/8 & 8/1 ie the outer limits of our own usual selection criteria.
That 22.7% record has come from 29 winners from the 128 runners in that price range and they in turn have generated 35.6pts profit at level stakes, a return of 27.8% of stakes.
It's a fortnight since Dormello Mo won over this very trip at Sandown and Paul Nicholls has a good record with his hurdlers who won last time out and are turned out again quite quickly, but not too soon that they haven't recovered from their exertions.
Over the last four years, Paul has sent out 28 runners in handicap hurdles within 10 to 45 days of a win last time out and 10 of those 28 have been winners again.
10/28 is a 35.7% strike rate and they in turn have produced amazing profits of 50.85pts to date, that's a phenomenal ROI of 181.6% and this in turn bring us to today's jockey Harry Derham.
Of that 10/28 record above, Harry Derham's figures are six wins from eight for massive profits of 50pts at betfair SP (+625.5% ROI).
Harry Derham is on board and claiming 3lbs today and trainer Paul Nicholls is a dab hand at identifying rides for his 3lb claimer jockeys, as results over the past few years have shown.
Over the last four years, Paul has employed the services of a 3lb claimer in 61 handicap races , of which 11 (18% SR) have been successful for level stakes profits of 43.9pts, or 72% ROI. From these figures, we see that Harry Derham was in the saddle on nine of the horses, riding four winners (44.4% SR) and producing level stakes profits of 24.93pts, some 277% of stakes.
So, we've a cluster of stats to back our selection here and although he's up 12lbs for that win on his handicap debut, he still looks quite favourably treated for a follow-up bid on just his third UK outing. He was also a winner over this trip in a hurdles contest in France last year.
He won by seven lengths last time out, but he could have been much further clear if he and his team had wanted, as he fairly coasted home with plenty to spare. I'd expect further progression from this one today and I'm expressing my belief in a 1pt win bet on Dormello Mo at 9/4 BOG. This price is quite widely available, but I've decided to use Stan James on this occasion. If you'd rather use someone else, you can see their prices, if you...