Stat of the Day, 21st February 2013
Time appeared to catch up on the veteran Fairwood Present yesterday. A series of unusual jumping errors blighted his run, as he justified the market's lack of faith in him, having drifted from my 9/1 advice out to an SP, of 20/1. The old warrior completed the course, unlike three of his rivals, but he only beat one other horse home.
We're off to Cambridgeshire today for a Class 1 Listed hurdle, where just five runners are set to line up to tackle two miles, four and a half furlongs on Soft Ground. We're looking to beat a very short-priced favourite in The Sidney Banks Memorial Novices Hurdle aka the ...
Jeremy Scott has a terrific record here at Huntingdon with seven winners from sixteen since October 2011, with another four of the nine losing horses going on to make the frame. Strike rates of 43.75% and 68.75% for the win and the place have produced profits of 9.1pts (56.9%) and 15.9pts (49.7%) for E/W backers. So Jeremy's runners here are always of interest.
Mr Scott comes here double-handed, with Grey Missile contesting the 2.30 chase event, but it's looks little too tough for him. he may well have a squeak of an E/w chance though (currently available at 9/1), but I prefer the chances of Kilmurvy who runs an hour later.
Kilmurvy is an unexposed type (23114 from 5 races) and a better horse than he showed last time out when struggling at Exeter. He toiled under a big weight in the mud that day, but Huntingdon is generally considered an easier track and more like the Taunton course that he's already won twice on.
His first win at Taunton was a bumper on good ground, but he followed that up with a hurdle victory on heavy ground over 2m 3.5f whilst seeming to still have more to give. It is hoped that the application of the cheekpieces will aid his progress further today and despite coming up against an odds on favourite (around 1/2) today, it wouldn't be any surprise to see him run well again.
Stan James are best priced at 15/2 at the moment, but their site is down and a telephone service is in operation, whilst Boylesports go 7/1. Despite these odds being long enough for a safety-first E/W bet and the presence of a short-priced favourite, I'm taking the bull by the horns and suggesting a 1pt win bet on Kilmurvy at 7/1 BOG with Boylesports, but you can always...