Stat of the Day, 20th September 2012
No joy for us yesterday as Dannios drifted out from our advised 5/1 to an SP of 6/1 and never really got involved in the action, finishing 7th of 9 runners, some 5 lengths off the winner. It rounded off a couple of miserable days for Ed Walker, usually so prolific at Yarmouth.
As tempting as it was to leave SotD in Yarmouth for a third successive day, I felt a change of scenery / country might help get us back into the winners' enclosure so we're off to Bonny Scotland for a one-mile Class 4 Handicap on soft ground. Twelve runners are set to go to post in the...
Trainer David O'Meara's record at Ayr over the last year has been absolutely fantastic with a form line reading 32151113, a 50% win strike rate and a place record of 87.5%. The four winners have generated a level stakes profit at SP of 21pts, a return of over 260% on stakes invested. Never mind beating the bank interest rate, that beats the bankers bonuses!
David is represented by two horses today: Bunce runs in the 5.10 race and holds a reasonable E/W chance at around 8/1, but that's a tough race where recent SotD winner Majuro aims for a 7-day hat-trick despite carrying a double penalty and he could well do it.
No, our main focus is an hour earlier, where Mr O'Meara saddles Ingleby Exceed, a horse that came to his yard just over 15 months ago and has performed well, winning 4 of 13 races with a further three place finishes, including a win last time out at Redcar, so she's clearly in good heart.
A further plus point today is the booking of young jockey Daniel Tudhope, who himself is in excellent form. Had you placed a £10 bet on every race he's ridden this season, you'd currently be some £926 in profit (22.6% on stakes) and when he rides for David O'Meara, his level stakes profit is 101.25pts on turf which equates to a 47.5% profit on stakes invested.
So, we know that the trainer does well here and that the jockey/trainer partnership is in good form. The horse Ingleby Exceed is in good nick, having won last time out and has only been raised 2lbs for that win and I think she's still improving.
A quick check on the early markets sees our selection available at 15/2 BOG with bet365 and I'm going to take that as an E/W bet today with the place paying 1/4 odds, but you should always...