Stat of the Day, 20th November 2013
We managed to continue where we left off at the end of October, as SotD made a winning return with 7/2 shot Jay Bee Blue, who benefited from a patient ride from the talented Oisin Murphy.
Mr Murphy bided his time before hitting the front to score by half a length, beating Matt's 20/1 E/W Shortlist selection George Fenton by half a length in what proved to be a very profitable race for Geegeez readers.
And once again, the 9/4 SP returned about our winner was a good 35% lower than our advised odds, giving another reminder about using BOG bookies and taking the early price. Please don't leave any money on the table.
The 9/1 winner that closed out October for us coupled with yesterday's success means I'm on a hat-trick today, if I can find the winner of the...
Where I think the horse to beat is Rockchasebullett, currently available at 5/2 BOG with both Bet365 and Paddy Power.
Rockchasebullett was an easy winner over course and distance here just a fortnight ago, when winning by 10 lengths despite a couple of jumping errors. He made all that day and his faults can be excused as that was only his second start over fences.
He has, of course, been hit by a hike (11lbs!) in the weights, but the margin and manner of his win last time out suggests that he's still on the right side of the handicap today.
I'd expect him to jump better today, after the experience gained last time out and a clear round could be worth quite a few lengths in a race like this and I fancy him to add to the growing list of winners for his trainer Fergal O'Brien who has got his string in fine order at present.
In fact, the yard has had 8 winners and 7 placers from 24 runners in the last fortnight and a £10 win bet on all 24 horses would have netted you a cool £483 profit, a return over stakes of some 201.25%.
Rockchasebullett is also one of those NH runners that I back when turned out shortly after a win which came after a string of unplaced efforts. The logic/theory is that when a trainer finally gets a horse to win after a succession of poor results, he/she is keen to strike whilst the iron is hot and turn the horse out again quickly.
In 2013 alone, 307 NH horses have been turned out at odds of 12/1 or under within 30 days of a win which followed a run of three or more unplaced efforts.
85 of these 307 horses have gone on to secure back to back wins: a strike rate of 27.7% generating level stakes profits of 102.2pts at betfair SP (the nearest approximation we have to BOG prices). This 102.2 pts is the equivalent of 33.3% of stakes invested.
If we further reduce the odds of the runners down to 6/1, the strike rate increases to 34.2% courtesy of a 76/222 record which has produced profits of 89.4pts, further increasing the ROI to 40.3%.
Rockchasebullett represents a yard in form and the stats suggest we'll get a real good run for our money and as such, I'm happy to stake my 1pt win bet at 5/2 BOG with Paddy Power today. Bet365 are also offering the same price, so for your pick of the bookies, simply...