Stat of the Day, 20th May 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th May 2013

A strange one yesterday,as (in the words of a fellow Geegeez subscriber) we went from hero to zero as we followed up back to back victories with a last place finish as the highly regarded Hoodna failed to fire. The way she suddenly folded and weakened was quite a surprise and hopefully it was purely down to her needing a run and nothing more serious.

But today is another day and offers us another opportunity to get back amongst the winners, so I'm off to the beach. Well, when I say beach, I mean the All-Weather track, of course, as we look at a Class 6 Handicap over a mile aka the....

5.00 Southwell:

Horses originating in the USA have a very good record here at Southwell under the following conditions: males horse aged between 3 and 5 years old running at distances of a mile and a half or less. Blind backing these horses over the last few years has been very successful indeed with a 20% strike rate and 15% ROI over the last six years or so.

But rather than just rely on historical data which may be skewed by events many years ago, the more recent figures are just as helpful to us. Since the start of 2012 , the record stands at 30 wins from 130 races (23.08%) for profits of 44.85pts (+34.5% ROI) at ISP and 60.62pts (+46.63% ROI) at BFSP.

This set of figures actually throws up the prospect of four qualifiers today: Linroyale Boy (3.30 race), Silvio Dante (4.00), Mataajir & Sofias Number One (5.00). Of the four, I'd say that Mataajir is the least likely winner today and is discarded at this point.

The horse I'm actually putting forward from the remaining three is Sofia's Number One, who ended his last string of outings in terrific form, completing a 19-day All-Weather hat trick with wins at Wolverhampton (9f), her at Southwell (over today's C&D on a mile) and then here again over 7f. He has since had a nice six weeks rest and it is expected that he'll pick up where he left off at his favoured track.

In addition to the record of fellow USA-bred runners here, his own personal achievements at Southwell are four wins and a place from just eleven attempts, with three course and distance wins plus a place from seven races. He clearly enjoys it here, particularly over this trip and the short break should just be enough to recharge his batteries.

He will have to carry the burden of a further 4lbs today, so trainer Roy Bowring has taken steps towards compensating fort his by putting a 3lb claimer on board and Roy is pretty astute with the use of claiming jockeys: 13 winners from 69 (18.85% SR) since the turn of 2012 has produced level stakes profits of 21.25pts (+30.8% ROI) at ISP and 30.58pts (+44.32%ROI) at BFSP.

And the jockey he has turned to is Mark Coumbe; Mark is no stranger to today's horse, he was on board last time out when winning over C&D on 2nd April, so comes here to defend a 100% record on this one!

Mark is regularly used by Mr Bowring when he needs a claimer and together they have notched up 9 winners from 36 (25%) this year alone for profits of 18.75pts (+52.08%) and 25.76pts (+71.56%).

So, we have number of qualifying stats today and all point to a 1 pt win bet on  Sofia's Number One at 9/2 BOG . I've used Bet365 today, but BetVictor and William Hill offer the same price as of 9.40am, so to take your pick of the bookies, simply...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.00 Southwell.


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7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 20th May 2013

  1. Josh W

    well well Chris, you are a master of your trade!! superb stats as always…once you had mentioned Linroyale Boy I couldnt help but have a 1/4 point of my usual SOTD stake on him at a tasty 6/1 early doors! I backed him blind, and then looked through card where I think he was only horse that didnt have a question mark against him for any of the conditions!! Racing post comment rubbish as well!, 12f or less clearly his trip, he doesnt want further hence poor run last time. That has paid for my SOTD stake with a bit left over!

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Thanks for the kind words, Josh. Both myself and Matt try our very hardest to look beyond the basic form guide for our readers. I’m really happy that you got on Linroyale Boy, but I sincerely hope that people don’t think we’re hedging our bets by mentioning other runners that fit a similar stats to the one used for SotD. Having said that, I really fancied Silvio Dante for a place in the 4.00, before it was withdrawn.

  2. Josh W

    well this is why it is such a good service, the more information the better as far as I am concerned, and it allows us to use it as we see fit. same way some people are using Matt’s placepot analysis for single bets on horses he fancies etc. the USA bred at southwell is a great way in. I have just invested a small chunk of my ‘extra’ winnings on Fossa – who has just won comfortably at 9/2! never races on surface before, if it was at lingfield he would have been short priced fav – but knowing he should get the surface helped with that bet!! not type of racing i would usually bet on but if you are going to have few quid on dire racing, Southwell is the place!!

  3. Josh W

    superb!!! doesnt come much easier than that, never in doubt! well done chris, on a roll now! great ride as well, thought he was going to be buried away (and buried in kick back) but pulled him out and made his move early.

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