Stat of the Day, 1st February 2013
So, January has been and gone and despite an indifferent month, SotD returned with 6.33pts profit (22.6% POI). This could have been improved slightly with the benefit of hindsight, had we gone E/W on yesterday's selection. Flying Award drifted out from my 9/2 as far as 6/1 at one point before returning as a runner-up at 11/2.
I know many of you took the E/W option at 6/1, which was good news for you and had that been available at the time I want to press, I'd have done the same! Nevertheless, I was happy enough with the selection, I just felt that the jockey needed to have done a little bit more earlier on to pressurize the winner.
We're off to Yorkshire today, and just like yesterday we've testing ground (officially soft) and once again the trip is a sapping 3 miles 1.5 furlongs for a 12-runner, Class 3 Handicap Hurdle, shown on your racecards as the...
I'm not often one to advise the blanket/blind backing of a trainer, but sometimes there's profitable angles in doing so. In recent times, Malcolm Jefferson has excelled in producing consistent returns from handicap races.
If we look at Mr. Jefferson's horses in NH handicap contests only: he has saddled 37 winners from 212 races since the start of 2011: this strike rate of 17.45% is profitable to the tune of 174pts at SP. That's a return of 82% on your money, which would be improved at either betfair SP or by taking early BOG odds.
In races of 5 runners of more: 79 successful E/W bets from 208 (38%) yielding 235pts profit at SP (56.5% return)
These figures are impressive enough to warrant attention, but as we all know, trainers are creatures of habit and tend to have their horses "ready" at certain specific times of the year and Malcolm seems to be no exception. During the two-year time frame mentioned above, 23 of those runners ran in the month of February, yielding five winners (21.7%) and a total of eleven placed finishes (47.8%). These results have meant profits of 33.5pts (145.7%) for the win backers, whilst a more cautious E/W approach has still netted 55pts (119.6%)
Mr Jefferson has two such runners today: Quite The Man would look to have a squeak of an E/W chance if the blinkers take effect in the 3.55 race (currently 12/1), but I think the stable's better chance lies with Sun Cloud.
Sun Cloud looked very much like an improving sort on the up when landing a 3m1f contest on soft ground at Wetherby back in November, but was admittedly disappointing next time out at Doncaster. He laboured home as a 5th placed 3/1 favourite that day, some 28 lengths off the winner. the general consensus was that the race had come too soon after his Wetherby exertions (just 14 days between the two) and he's had a good nine-week rest since then and is expected to fire again now fresh.
I'm happy to take another chance of him picking up where he left off at Wetherby and putting the Doncaster run down to being the wrong time for him and my play today is 0.5pts E/W on Sun Cloud at 10/1 BOG with Boylesports, but for the odds at your preferred bookmaker...
***It seems the price has changed whilst I was typing the post! Best price is now 8/1 (at 11.00 am), so we'll take 8/1 as our advised price.***