Stat of the Day, 19th September 2012

Stat of the Day 19/09

Stat of the Day 19/09

 

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2012

It was a decent, if not totally successful day for SotD yesterday. Willie Wag Tail was duly swerved (and subsequently laid by myself!) and was beaten into 3rd place at rather mean odds of 5/6. Then, a half hour later, our 15/2 E/W selection Suzy's A Class Act was sent off as a 9/2 joint favourite and was beaten into 2nd place by just about a length. It meant a small profit from the race, which is always good.

Now, as punters, we're often to eager to criticise jockeys after we've lost a race and praise the horse if we win, but yesterday I thought Adam Beschizza gave our selection the perfect ride. He kept her in close contention and didn't hit the front too soon, it looked like he timed a patient run to the exact moment required. Unfortunately, once she hit the front, she didn't seem able to kick on and put the race to bed and was overhauled late on. Still, a decent result for us with profit and beating the book, but absolutely no issue with the jockey.

We're staying by the seaside for today's selection, a one-mile Class 4 Handicap for 3 yr olds and over. It's a 10-runner race on Good to Firm ground aka the...

4.20 Yarmouth

The afore-mentioned Willie Wag Tail's defeat yesterday slightly dented Ed Walker's record at the Norfolk track. Yet despite this, I want to take a closer look at this trainer today.

Ed is one of the up and coming new(-ish) trainers who has been profitable to follow from day 1. His first entrant ran only as recently as 27th November 2010, when he saddled Riggins to a 4/1 victory at Kempton and he has rarely looked back since. In his relatively short career so far, he has sent out 168 runners producing 30 winners for a creditable 18% strike rate and a level stakes profit of 35pts (21%). He has proved particularly adept with the horses aged 4 and over running on turf: 14 wins from 76 (18.4%) and a profit of 58pts (76%).

Those figures are impressive enough, but they take an upwards turn when it comes to sending his horses to Yarmouth:
12 races, 7 winners, 1 3rd place finish. A profit of 50pts has been achieved!

The bulk of those profits, however, have come from one horse: today's SotD Selection, Dannios. This horse's career wasn't really going anywhere, as he failed to win any of six races for Luca Cumani at various distances between six and ten furlongs. He was then sent out as a hurdler for Venetia Williams and showed nothing in his solitary outing over the hurdles.

Then, in June 2011, Mrs Walker bought the horse and Ed began to train him. He fitted a tongue tie and sent him off to race here at Yarmouth that very week and he came back a 33/1 winner. Like his trainer, he hasn't really looked back since either!

Dannios' record for Ed Walker now reads 19110811 with his record at Yarmouth being 11111 : five out of five at the track, three wins over course & distance, including one on today's Good to Firm ground.

He has crept up the weights a little as a result, but he comes here in good nick, good form and he really loves it here. I apologise for the longer than usual piece today, I just felt it was an interesting change in fortunes for this horse.

The increase in weight has been reflected in the market, but the 5/1 BOG generally on offer looks generous, so it's a 1pt win bet today, but you should always...

Click here for the latest odds for the 4.20 Yarmouth.

14 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 19th September 2012

  1. Ian L

    Hi Chris, no need to apologise for the longer piece, all the information is relevant and interesting!
    BW Ian
    PS Matt as you are obviously around can you please just check my question on Place to Win. (Better to be busy than waiting, they say – trust all goes well)

  2. Dingo

    just joined…nice tip, and thoughts.

    Looking at Dannios’ recent runs, he normally seems to drift a bit in-running:

    HIGH BSP
    14-Aug-12 Yarmouth 1/5 7f 6 3.26
    08-Aug-12 Yarmouth 1/6 7f 18 5.11
    15-Aug-11 Yarmouth 1/7 1m 2.7 1.76
    10-Aug-11 Yarmouth 1/10 1m 130 16.5
    08-Jun-11 Yarmouth 1/10 1m 110 42.93

    Might be worth considering an in-running bet as well.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi James

      Firstly, welcome. Disappointing effort today, which we do get from time to time, of course.

      I’m not sure which coloured blocks you’re referring to there. Can you be more specific please?

      Thanks,
      Matt

  3. James

    Hi Matt
    The Block with the colours are along side the post the three colours are red green and yello
    in each square at the top it says Square alignment, sorry I am new to this an and OAP to boot
    as I signed up late in the day I did not get rhe bet/bets today so will look forward to my 1st one tomorrow
    regards
    James

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.