Stat of the Day, 19th March 2013
At last. A winner yesterday, and at 6/1. Cracking ride from Geraghty, looking for better ground all the way, and winning with a bit in hand despite the weight concessions pretty much all round.
Trappier today, and I'm taking a chance with a beach boy, in the...
Hughie Morrison is a man to side with at Southwell, and his three year olds do especially well. In fact, in the last five seasons, Morrison has won with 21 of his 69 3yo runners here (30%), for a level stakes profit of 26.38 units.
He's sending just the one beast up there today, in the maiden, and it's a race which doesn't look like it will take a lot of winning. The favourite has had three goes and keeps finding one too good, and the second choice is having a bit of a 'chalk and cheese' experience, given that he made his (duck egg) debut at Ascot!
Burgoyne has been nibbled already this morning, and should certainly improve both for his debut run at Kempton, and for the first time fitting of a hood. He's a US-bred horse, and those seem to do very well at Southwell, but that's maybe more coincidental than something to go to war with.
The market vibe, allied to the trainer's record, and the fact that it's a bad race, mean I'm going each way on Burgoyne, at 6/1 with Paddy Power (Best Odds Guaranteed). [PP will also match your first bet up to £50, with a free bet.]
Of course, do make sure you...