Stat of the Day, 19th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th July 2013

After winners on Monday & Tuesday, followed by a non-runner on Wednesday, Ibecke was our first loser of the week. As expected, Boogangoo was the best of the 4 horses on display and our filly never really got close enough late on to land a telling blow. As it was, the finishing order mirrored the market and our pick was 3rd as the 9/2 3rd fav.

Familiar names today in a maiden at HQ, where he going is likely to be good to firm for the 7f trip in the...

6.20 Newmarket

Racing on the July course here at Newmarket often means one thing: winners for Mickael Barzalona. And even more so when he's sat on one trained by Saeed bin Suroor.

Mickael's record here on the July course currently reads as 25 winners from 113 attempts for level stakes profits of 52.24pts at Betfair SP (which is closer to BOG than ISP is!).
That's a 22.12% strike rate and an ROI of 46.23%.

On a Saeed bin Suroor trained mount, that record improves to 8/31 (25.81%) for 14.99pts profit, an ROI of 48.33%.

Those figures are obviously based on all rides, but if we look a little closer at the odds of the horses we generally get for our SotD picks, we see that Mr Barzalona has a 1 in 3 strike rate (19 winners from 57) on horses priced at 6/1 or under and these have produced profits of some 36.85pts (+64.65%)

On horses from the bin Suroor yard priced at a maximum of 6/1, he has ridden seven winners from twenty-two rides (31.82% SR) for profits of 14.4pts (+65.45%)

The jockey and trainer combine for two rides here tonight with two unraced horses. Whilst the 5/2 shot, 3yr old debutant For Posterity has a decent enough chance in the 8.25 race, Saeed bin Suroor has a far better record with his 2 yr old newcomers than those a year older.

All of which leads us Folk Melody, an unraced 2 yr old making her debut in a race that Godolphin have won in two of the last three runnings. She obviously has no form to talk about, but she's got some decent breeding behind her and I quote the Racing Post: "Dam 1m2f-1m4f winner, including a Canadian Grade 1, out of a half-sister to Listed winners Innocent Air (7f-1m2f) and Skipping (1m2f-1m4f), as well as the dam of Marcel Boussac winner Proportional; respected newcomer with Godolphin having won this maiden twice in three years"

The racecard for this contest is here.

The jockey's record here allied to his performances for the yard are enough on their own to suggest abet, but it's worth reminding ourselves of the yard's record with 2yr olds on debut.

In the 2011/13 timeframe, Saeed bin Suroor has had 30 2 yr old winners on debut from the 118 he has sent out, a strike rate of 25.42% and an ROI of 30.36% courtesy of 35.83pts profit. That strike rate rises to 33.33% (25/75) and profits of 25.04pts (+33.39% ROI) with horses at 6/1 or under.

And as today's selection is highly likely to be both favourite and in the 2/1 to 4/1 region, I just want to add one final set of numbers. The yard's record with 2yr olds on debut when fancied (ie 2/1 to 4/1) is 14 winners from 36 (38.9%) for 19.32pts profit (+53.67% ROI).

All these figures are highly impressive and despite a large field assembling for this one, I'm more than happy to stake a 1pt win bet on Folk Melody at 11/4 BOG with Paddy Power, as 5/2 and shorter seems to be the norm, so I recommend that you...

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