Stat of the Day, 18th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th October 2013

No joy, but no disgrace yesterday as Duchess of Seville fared better than the bare 6th place would suggest. We backed her at 8/1 E/W looking for at least a place and she only missed out on the money by a length after being outpaced late on.

In fact, the race was so tight that she was only 2 lengths away from the winner! She was well backed during the day down from our 8/1 advised odds to a low of 3/1 at one point, before the market settled down and sent her off as 9/2 second favourite, so we did at least beat the book.

We all know that beating the book price is important and although no reward came yesterday, it is the key to long-term success.

The North West beckons today and a 10 furlong maiden for two year olds in the...

2.20 Haydock

Where Richard Hughes rides Fun Mac for Hughie Morrison and the horse is currently best priced at 4/1 BOG with several firms.

Fun Mac was a very creditable third last time out over this same trip (allaying any stamina concerns) at Pontefract eleven days ago and takes a drop down in Class to compete here today. This is a tactic often used by Hughie Morrison to good effect.

In the 2011/13 period, Hughie Morrison's runners dropping down one class to compete have won 15 of 58 races (25.9% SR) when sent off at SPs of between 6/4 and 12/1. This has produced 46pts level stakes profits, a return of 79.3% ROI.

If we're a little more restrictive in the odds to fall in line with our usual selections here at SotD, we see 9 winners from 28 (32.1% SR) for 22.15pts (+79.1% ROI) from those horses priced between 5/2 and 5/1, showing a consistent level of return.

Fun Mac comes here after running well enough last time out and despite not winning managed to put a good 14 lengths between himself and the following pack and with no disrespect to Robert Havlin, who rode him on his two outings to date, but it is expected that the booking of Richard Hughes is likely to draw further improvement from this horse.

I mentioned in a previous SotD post that certain trainers will switch to one of the "big three" to get a little more out of a horse and the move often pays dividends. The fact is that when Hughie Morrison books one of Messrs Moore, Fallon or Hughes to ride a horse they didn't ride last time out, there are profits to be made.

In the same 2011/13 timeframe as above, Mr Morrison has drafted one of these three jockeys in on 71 occasions, resulting in 21 winners (29.6% SR) and 29.5pts (+41.5% ROI) profits. And when those horses attracted market support (ie were priced at 9/2 or under), the figures are 17 winners from 36 (47.22% SR) for 20.55pts (+57.1% ROI)

When Richard Hughes was the chosen jockey, his record reads as 10 winners from 22 (45.45% SR) for 8.9pts (+40.5% ROI) profit.

And finally, we should just remind you that although Richard has ridden 775 2yr olds in the last three seasons, it is profitable to back him blindly on them! He has a strike rate of over 26% at all odds (31% below 5/1) and generates around 16% profit above stakes.

In my opinion, Fun Mac is only as big as 4/1 because there has been some money for the favourite Newmarket Warrior, who remains a maiden after five attempts and also seems to find one (or two!) too good for him and I expect that to be the case again today, so it's a 1pt win bet on Fun Mac for me and I've taken the 4/1 BOG on offer from BetVictor, but this price is fairly widely available, so why not ...

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