Stat of the Day, 18th May 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th May 2013

The switch of jockey worked a treat for Semeen yesterday, as Richard Hughes used every ounce of his considerable talents to get the horse home after an exciting battle for the lead over the final two furlongs. The winning margin was a mere head and the SP was 7/2 after a little drift in the market.

We're looking to build on that result by taking a trip to Staffordshire for a 3 mile, Class 4, Mares' Handicap Hurdle. The going is said to be good to soft at 9.30am, but the prospect of further rain could affect that for the seven runners contesting the....

8.20 Uttoxeter:

Short and sweet today, folks, as we look at a course specialist in trainer Jeremy Scott, whose horses consistently go really well here at Uttoxeter. His career record at the track shows a 25% strike rate (8 winners from 32) for level stakes profits of 12.07pts (+37.72% ROI) at Industry SP and a return of 15.44pts (+48.25% ROI) at betfair SP.

Quite often, when we look at a trainer's career stats at a track, the numbers are often skewed by early successes before the market got wise to his MO. This isn't the case here, as in the last two years, he has saddled up three winners from 10 for profits of 9.13pts and 11.18pts respectively, proving that the stat is still valid.

Regular readers of SotD won't be surprised to read that Jeremy only has one runner today, so by default Ballinahow Star becomes our daily selection. This seven-year old bay mare will be ridden by Nick Scholfield today, as she has been on all of her previous five races. This, however, is their first visit to Uttoxeter, where the trainer / jockey combination has proved very successful and profitable in the past.

Nick has only ridden seven of Jeremy's thirty-two Uttoxeter runners, but a results sequence of 1611232 demands respect and raises the interest even further. Those 3 wins from 7 have generated profits of 17.88pts (+255.42% ROI) at ISP and 20.44pts (+292% ROI) at BSP and although we're not looking for an E/W bet today, the 85.7% place strike rate is quite fantastic and E/W punters would be 25pts to the good from these 7 runners.

So, what of the horse Ballinahow Star herself? She's an unexposed type who is still expected to progress and started her career by finishing 2nd at Exeter last November and followed that up with back to back victories at Wincanton, the first two races were on soft ground and the latter one on heavy, so further rain and an easing of the ground shouldn't affect her at all today.

She was brought down in her penultimate race, so it's hard to draw any conclusions from that one  and it could easily be argued that the step up to listed class last time out was too much for her. She finished 8th of 11 that day, but wasn't disgraced and despite not being ridden out for a finish, she was only 14 lengths away from the winner. It is expected that she'll improve for that experience and that the step up to 3 miles will suit her.

I think she has every chance of delivering us another winner today, based on her own form and ability. This coupled with the stats quoted above make a 1pt win bet on Ballinahow Star at 4/1 BOG quite an attractive proposition to me, you can get that price at both betVictor and Coral, but she is as low as 3/1 in parts. To see what you bookie is offering...

Click here for the latest betting on the 8.20 Uttoxeter.


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5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 18th May 2013

  1. Josh W

    good pick chris well done, ‘only’ managed to get on at 3/1, great two days, keep it up!! that mares race at kempton is looking like a race to follow, out of the 8 that finished, 3 that have run since including this one have all one (va vite and touberra as well – both in last 2 days). have added the other 5 into the note book!!

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Cheers, boss. It turned out to be a good pick indeed and Josh is right, that Kempton race might well produce some more winners.

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