Stat of the Day, 18th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 17/03/13

Stat of the Day: 18/03/13

Stat of the Day, 18th March 2013

Oh dear. Stat of the Day is currently as frosty as our Winter has been, and shows little signs of escaping the sub-zero clutches of the cold list. A change of week, and a change of chair might help.

We're staying in Ireland for this afternoon, in the...

4.15 Navan

Very slim pickings today from a statistical perspective, and the best I can come up with is a combination of horse and trainer track stats, in the form of Paul Nolan's Panther Claw.

Let's deal with the trainer first. Nolan has run 61 horses here and eight of them have won (13%) for a profit of eight units at level stakes. Not massive, but fair enough.

His horse, Panther Claw, has been extremely consistent, and has made the frame in four of his five rules starts to date. All five have been in chases, Panther Claw having been bought after winning a point-to-point. He's looked progressive in his last three runs - form figures 312 - and has shown slightly improved form since being stepped up to a trip around today's three miles.

The horse which beat him by just over a length two starts back, Rich Revival, has gone on to win twice more since, and there were seven lengths-plus back to the rest that day.

Then, last time out, Panther Claw was third of eighteen in the Grade A Thyestes handicap chase. He was beaten by two far more experienced horses that day, and ran with great credit in the context of a race like this, for novices.

His jumping is normally very good, and it's a huge positive that Barry Geraghty will take the ride. Panther Claw has won on heavy ground, and was placed in the Thyestes last time on the same. With conditions in his favour, and 6/1 available with Boylesports, half a point each way is the advised play.

If you're new to Boylesports, they'll give you a free matched bet up to £20 on your first placed wager.

Of course, do make sure you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.15 Navan

 

7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 18th March 2013

  1. Pete

    Hey Matt,
    First time I’ve looked at this – impressive start! I see from other posts that SOTD has been going through a sticky patch. ALL systems go through losing runs at some point, it’s just that some don’t go through any winning ones! So, hopefully this wil turn things around again for SOTD, I’ll be watching with interest. …course, it’ll probably all go pear shaped again if I start putting money on 🙂
    Keep up the good work
    Pete

  2. Bob Smith (@RobertS00994664)

    Great pick Matt – back to winning ways. Wonderfully nursed to victory by Barry G. – what a jockey. Only one better than him and we all know who is the real McCoy !

    Backed at 5/1 with P.P. and got S.P. of 6/1 – nice !

    many Thanks

  3. David

    Still kicking myself down the high street. Picked this out the night before and you made a really compelling argument. Why is my money still in my pocket!? D’oh!!!!

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