Stat of the Day, 17th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th September 2013

Dr Irv didn't run badly at all yesterday, but when push came to shove in the final furlong, he didn't have the same turn of foot as the two leaders and had to settle for a third place finish at 4/1, half a point shorter than our advised bet.

Hurdles action for SotD today as we tackle the...

6.05 Stratford

Alan King has a decent enough recent record here at Stratford with four winners from seventeen runners over the last couple of years and the results have yielded a level stakes profit of just over 10pts at Betfair SP: a return of 59% over stakes invested. And his last six runners here have finished 112412.

Alan has just the one runner on show on Tuesday, the in-form Letsby Avenue who comes here seeking a hat-trick of wins after two second place finishes earlier in the year. All told, this horse has won three times from seven and has finished second twice and fourth twice.

Good ground is forecast here and Letsby Avenue's record in these conditions is 1211 and he has also finished second on his last effort on good to soft, in case the rains come again!

He looks to be progressing nicely from a 23 length demolition job at Uttoxeter on his penultimate outing, which he followed up by a very solid performance to win at Market Rasen last time out, whilst stepping up in both trip and class.

He steps up to Class 3 today and tackles 2m 6.5f for the first time, but he has run well over 2m 6f in the past and the way he finished both of his last two races, he looked like he'd plenty left in the tank. He'll come here refreshed from a break of just over six weeks and runs off the same 129 mark as last time out and although this is his toughest task to date, I think he still has some progression left in him.

The likes of the wily old Benbane Head are likely to both have a say and also lengthen the odds of our selection, but I think that a 1pt win bet on Letsby Avenue at 7/2 BOG with Bet365 should be the trick to get us back on the winning path.

I wrote this on Monday evening, as there was no evening racing to "entertain" me. This meant that only bet365 and BetVictor had a market for this race, so I strongly suggest that you...

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7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 17th September 2013

  1. martin

    Hi Chris…Got to agree that Dr Irv ran a decent race and anyone that followed you in definitely got a run for their money.

    The UK Racing’s commentary and analysis after the race suggested that Dr Irv should be kept ‘an eye on’ and that he (Dr Irv) may be better moving up in class, carrying a lesser weight due to the horse’s stature/build. They also suggested that the gelding would possibly be suited to a stronger pace which would be more likely in a higher class of race.

    I do find UK Racing commentary and analysis generally to be much more insightful than say ATR. Is this just me?

    Chris, what’s your view on the relative qualities of the UK Racing commentary/analysis as say compared to ATR, which often imo just seems to describe what you can see on the screen yourself.

    Martin

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Martin,

      I certainly agree that you get more analysis and/or opinion from RUK, rather than a bland summary of what’s in front of you. RUK’s coverage is closer to Timeform Radio’s efforts, who also have to plenty to say about the horses in general rather than just that particular race. The comments re: Dr Irv today are a good example. ATR would probably have just said he wasn;t good enough or “didn’t get the track”. Whilst we’re grateful that Sky are covering some of the smaller meetings, their coverage does leave a little to be desired.

      Chris

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Martin,

      If you’d not watched the run-in, you’d be forgiven for thinking they were tired-looking jumps, but the way he was still running on at the end says he got the trip fine. It was a definite mistake 2 out and that probably put a bit of doubt in his mind for the last, but it was comfortable in the end.

      Chris

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Yes, he ran really well for us there.
      I’ve just checked my bet365 account and they’ve settled the bet at the 3/1 SP, so it’s a 3pt gain on the day.
      This works in our favour, as it would have been a 35p Rule 4, based on how early I put the original bet on.
      That would have meant us only getting 2.275/1.

      Chris

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