Stat of the Day, 17th February 2014
Maison de Ville was a comfortable winner at a nice price yesterday, giving us our fourth win on the bounce.
She broke her duck in style on her first start for Brian Ellison, taking the led before two out and pulling clear of the pack to notch an eight lengths victory at our advised 4/1 price.
If you thought Sunday had little to offer, then today is arguably worse, but I think we've a great chance of extending our recent purple patch with a selection in today's...
Where Joe Fanning rides the 5/1 BOG (Bet365) 4 yr old Doldrums for trainer Mark Johnston in this Class 5 handicap of just over a mile and a half. This horse interests me for several reasons and in no particular order, here goes...
1. Mark Johnston's horses are flying at the moment: in the last month alone he has had 15 winners from 43 runners at all odds with that 34.9% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 14.7pts or 34.2% of stakes. if we just look at those runners priced below 12/1 and excluding odds-on selections (which we never pick for SotD!), the record reads 11 winners from 33 (33.33% SR) for 18.15pts (+55.0% ROI) profit: very healthy indeed.
As for Joe Fanning, he has ridden all those 11 winners from 31 rides.
2. Mark has also has a very good winter campaign here at Wolverhampton, saddling up 18 winners (32.1% SR) from 56 runners here in the last three months, returning level stakes profits of 24.7pts in the process, an ROI of just over 44% from all runners, whilst all 18 winners have come from the 45 runners priced at 10/1 or shorter with this 40% strike rate yielding profits of 35.67pts or 79.3% of stakes.
Joe Fanning has ridden 32 of those 45 horses, netting himself 14 winners (43.75% SR) in the process for 20.6pts (+64.4% ROI) profits.
3. Joe Fanning is also one of the better jockeys when it comes to the longer distance races on the all-weather. These often become tactical affairs and it pays to side with an experienced pro like Joe. He's amongst the best at assessing how a race is panning out over the longer trips and manages his horses well. Proof of this comes when we look at his record on the All-Weather over trips of 11 furlongs or longer where we see him winning 65 of 295 races since the start of 2011.
That 22% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 153.3pts (+52% ROI) without filtering down into the results. But if we do drill down, we get the following:
At odds between 13/8 & 8/1 ie SotD territory: 42/164 (25.6% SR) for 69.7pts (+42.5% ROI)
On horses aged 4 or 5 yrs old: 36/144 (25% SR) for 138.56pts (+96.2% ROI)
At Wolverhampton: 28/118 (23.7% SR) for 78.8pts (+66.8% ROI)
And with all three factors in play: 11/33 (33.33% SR) for 13.96pts (+42.3% ROI). Obviously all combinations of the above are profitable, but I wouldn't want to bore you with the details! 😀
The horse in question, Doldrums, comes here as a former course and distance winner, having won comfortably here two starts ago. She didn't perform last time out at Lingfield, but that was the first time she's raced anywhere other than at Wolverhampton, where she has won two of her previous five starts.
We know she gets the track and she stays the extended 12f easily and although she races off a mark six pounds higher than her last win, it would need more weight than that to stop if she repeats the level of that performance here today. This won't be an easy race to win, but there are some nagging doubts about all her rivals here and the price currently offer seems to represent decent value, especially with her 3lb weight allowance to consider.
I've placed a 1pt win bet on Doldrums at 5/1 BOG with Bet 365, I invite you to do the same, but please feel free to...