Stat of the Day, 17th August 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2012

A bizarre race yesterday, as the eight jockeys behind Ryan Moore allowed the former champ a ten length advantage. Moore knows about pacing and racing, and he thanked them kindly before completing the job nine lengths clear. Preposterously poor judgment from the rest, who were led home by our own SotD pick Odin.

Don't get me wrong, I'm certainly not suggesting Odin would have won. But he should have been a damned sight closer. Anyway, each way on 9/1 advised (returned 7/1) adds a bit more gravy to the boat.

We'll stay at HQ today for a bit of a wild stab in the dark, in truth, in the…

5.55 Newmarket

This is not the sort of race I'd normally bet in. It's a nineteen runner six furlong sprint handicap, and it's wide open.

But there was one thing I spotted this morning which, allied to the price, tempted me to have a throwaway tickle...

Lurking deep in the midst of the field here is a horse who has only had fourteen runs, and he's won four of them. On turf, he's even less exposed, with six runs yielding two wins and a third. At six furlongs, he's won three of his five attempts. He was third on one of the other two, and last of nine after a three month break on his only other try at the three-quarter mile trip.

Today, Dashwood should be fit as a flea after two runs in the last four weeks, under perfectly inadequate conditions. On his first start of the year, he ran over seven furlongs, on very soft ground here, and was predictably wellied.

Then, a couple of weeks later - and a couple of weeks ago - Dashwood popped over a mile. Gasp. He'd previously run over a mile twice - on his first two starts - presumably when previous trainer, Giles Bravery, was trying to get a decent handicap mark. (He was dropped to five furlongs for his third run in a maiden, and then bolted up by nearly three lengths first time in a handicap over... six furlongs).

So he loves the trip, will love the ground (only won on good or faster, or quick all weather at Kempton), is four pounds lower than his last winning mark of 74 - albeit in a higher class today, and has the decent Saleem Golam atop today.

Anthony Carson - related to Willie no doubt - has a fine record training sprinters since he took out a license last year, and this boyo is... 33/1?!

Obviously, it's a deeply competitive race, but there are plenty of reasons to expect a much improved showing from Dashwood, and there's plenty of margin in the price to forgive a clunker if that's how it must be.

Each way a pleasure, sir, at 33/1 BOG... (or you might take the 50's on the exchanges, or 40/1 Coral not BOG).

Click here for the latest odds for the 5.55 Newmarket.

5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 17th August 2012

  1. graham ashford

    hi Matt
    a brave selection,can be a awkward customer but has you say has not run too many times on turf and won two.defintely worth a few shillings at the of luck

  2. MikeA

    Nice one Matt, I’ve had my usual stake plus a small E/W double with Saloon in the 7.35 – was 50/1 now 14/1. All beers on me tonight (and tomorrow night) if it comes in!

  3. Mondo

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again (but Goethe said it first 🙂 ), “Be bold and mighty forces will come to your aid!”

    £2 win, £5 place for me.

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