Stat of the Day, 17th April 2013

Stat of the Day: 17/04/13

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th April 2013

Unlucky yesterday, as Xpres Maite again lost the race at the start, though this time it wasn't his fault. He broke alertly, but horses to his left and right, and half a length in front of him, combined to squeeze him out and he lost about four lengths. The jockey made the ground up with an outside move, but he then got outpaced two out, and looked as though he'd miss the frame.

He's nothing if not a plodder though - perfect for Southwell - and he stuck on well past tiring horses to get within a length of the winner. He's not one to rely on, but continues in great heart and may win soon.

From the ridiculous to the sublime today, as we take in good old Chelters, specifically the...

3.55 Cheltenham

Hunt Ball was THE story of last season, rising through the handicap ranks like a firework in the night sky. He finished with a win here, over today's trip, in the Novices' handicap chase at the Festival.

It's his distance form which catches my eye this afternoon. Hunt Ball has run over 21 furlongs nine times, and his figures read 1111113P24. The '4' was when lugging top weight in the Byrne Group Plate; the '3' was when third in a Grade 1 at Aintree; and the '2' was in a heavy ground Grade 2 behind re-opposing Menorah. Oh, and the 'P' was in deep ground on his seasonal debut in the Paddy Power.

Let's talk about the ground now. On soft or worse, Hunt Ball is 121P23, with the early part of the string when he was running in egg and spoon races whilst surging up the ratings. On good to soft or better, he's 00P4 (before the first win), then 11111341, the 34 being referenced above already.

So, we know he goes in the ground, acts on the track and loves the distance. It's a Grade 2 today, and he has the second highest rating here behind that man, Menorah. Menorah is a horrible jumper: very talented, but a horrible jumper. His Cheltenham record over fences reads 3P. His defeat of Hunt Ball was on heavy ground. Hunt Ball hates heavy ground.

Champion Court has had plenty of chances and not won outside novice company. He's getting plenty of weight here, but still might not be up to beating the classier pair.

Hunt Ball, win only, 7/2 with Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed.

Plus, and this is one of the best bookie offers around right now, if you open an account and bet a tenner, they'll give you £30 in free bets.

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.55 Cheltenham

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6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 17th April 2013

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      It’s Stat of the Day, Peter, not a full race preview. The horse with the outstanding stat is Hunt Ball, and yes, I think he’ll beat Champion Court.

      Of course, I could be wrong. I think I know which horse you’ve backed. 😉

      Matt

  1. Mike A

    I’m also already on Champion Court…for some reason I’m not keen on Hunt Ball but got him completely wrong last time so I’ll be following you in as always. Good luck!

  2. Peter H

    Hi Matt – I appreciate that it’s SOTD, I was just struck by how you rated HB and M as joint favs which left out the actual current jolly.
    At the moment I am suffering from a severe case of seconditis (Including Cabrera) – I think I’ll just sit this one out.
    Be lucky

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Peter

      I actually made a mistake, assuming Menorah was favourite. I’m very surprised that a horse which has never won outside of novice company is favourite here. He can win, of course, but he’s never a 2/1 shot to do that. Not in my book anyway. Menorah is mildly tempting at the price too, if he consents to jump. Suffered a serious brain freeze this am when scouting the available odds.

      Matt

      1. Mike A

        Hi Matt,
        I personally think CC is a 2/1 shot. Or put another way, if he can’t win getting a stone and half a stone from the top two with optimum conditions then he won’t get many better chances. But as I said, my judgement is clouded when it comes to HB – the antics of the owner perhaps 🙂
        Either way I’ll be cheering both home, and I won’t be upset if Easter Meteor wins as well!
        Mike

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