Stat of the Day, 16th February 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th February 2014

Yesterday was our third consecutive winning bet, as Ruby Walsh steered home Willie Mullins' newcomer Florishwell D'Ete by the best part of three lengths at an SP of 4/7.

4/7? Yes, you read it correctly, it was returned at 4/7. The perfect explanation of why it is imperative to take the BOG prices we advise. 9/4 was our original advice and that itself is getting towards the bottom end of where we're happy to operate. But there was a later non-runner invoking a Rule 4 deduction.

This meant we got paid out at 9/5, which although a little measly was actually worth 315% of SP and not taking BOG means you're leaving money on the bookies' tables.

There's not much to work with today, as we seek the four-timer, I'm afraid. There's an A/W jumpers bumper card, a soft ground hurdles meeting in the UK and one on heavy in Ireland. So, we're going to attempt the...

1.50 Market Rasen:

Where Brian Ellison sends a total of four runners to the course in a bid to maintain his recent good record in Lincolnshire.

Since the start of 2010, 29 of his 72 runners here at Market Rasen have made the frame for a place strike rate of  over 40%, with 16 of them going on to win.This 1-in-6 record means that had you put £10 on each of them, you'd now be sitting on £573 profit, a return of 79.6% on top of your stakes.

There are, admittedly, a couple of larger priced winners slightly skewing the figures, but we just consider those runners in "normal SotD territory" ie 6/1 and under, we still have 9 winners from 29 for 17.63pts profit. That's a 31% strike rate producing a 60.8% yield, which I'd be happy with all day long.

From the original 72 runners, the record in hurdle events is 10/60 (the same strike rate as all his runners here) for 46.28pts profit with those hurdlers priced at 6/1 or under winning 8 times from 24 (33.33% SR) for 16.84pts (+70.2% ROI) profits. So it's a hurdler we want!

The first three races on today's card all have an entry from Brian Ellison and the one I'm going with is the 4/1 BOG chance Maison de Ville, who makes her first start for the yard after a consistent spell with David O'Meara.

She may not have won for her former trainer, but finishes of 232363 in her six outings to date provide encouragement that this 6yr old will win races and Brian Ellison has a good record at getting a bit more out of horses brought in from other yards.

Since the start of 2010, he has brought in 107 horses aged between 4 & 9 inclusive with at least three previous runs to their name at other yards. 25 of these 107 horses have won on their yard debut for a strike rate of 23.4% and a return of 55pts profit, or 51.4% of stakes. One large winner should really be omitted from those stats, leaving us with a 24/76 (31.6% SR) record with those priced at 8/1 or under, which in turn has generated some 55.05pts profit (+72.4% ROI)

And, of the 76 runners priced at 8/1 or under the record in hurdle races is 5/15 (33.33% SR) for 19.86pts (+132.4% ROI). All of which means that a 1pt win bet on Maison de Ville isn't a complete shot in the dark and I've taken 4/1 BOG with BetVictor. That price isn't exclusive, though, and to shop around, simply...

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3 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 16th February 2014

  1. twood715

    We’ll done Chris over the last few days and fingers crossed for today. I notice that Eddie Lloyd has picked another of Ellison’s runners. Eddie seems to be struggling recently, I thought your comments on his blog were very gracious. Keep up the good work Chris. Terry

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Firstly, thanks for your own kind words, we appreciate all and any feedback here at geegeez.
      As for Eddie’s blog, I can speak from experience and empathise with him when things aren’t always going to plan.

      I may well put a little more detail into my pieces, but the upshot is the same: we’re both trying to beat the bookies with a daily stat-based selection. Eddie’s had some detractors of late, but his record is good overall and I’m far more interested in long-term profitability than just being able to point to one good week a few months back, like some “tipsters” do.

      “Tipping” (and I hate that word) is a tough job and Eddie’s making profits, that has to be the bottom line.

      Thanks again,
      Chris

      PS There’s no reason why Brian Ellison can’t have two winners today either! 😀

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