Stat of the Day, 16th August 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th August 2013

For the second day running, I managed to pick the third placed horse in the 4.30 at Salisbury. I wonder what the odds of that are/were?

We backed My Own Way Home at 11/4 yesterday and we certainly got the value from the early price. Having traded as low as 6/4 during the day, this one eventually went off as a 9/4 favourite, but that's as good as it got, as we never really looked like winning and the third place was only secured late on.

I want to break this sequence of thirds with victory today in the...

3.45 Newcastle

David O'Meara has a good record with horses coming back from a break with horses returning from a lay off of three to eight months showing a 19.5% strike rate over the last three seasons, courtesy of twenty-three winners from a hundred and eighteen runners. This has rewarded his followers with profits of 61.15 pts, an ROI of 51.82%.

Sixteen of those winners came from the sixty-one runners who were sent off at odds of between 13/8 and 8/1, with that 26.23% strike rate generating 24.49pts profit (+40.14% ROI).

Today, he runs The Codger, who has been away from the track for just over 15 weeks since winning a 1m contest at Redcar on his handicap debut. The way he ran that day suggested he'd cope well with a step up in trip and it is thought that today's extra two furlongs will play to his strengths.

The form from his handicap win has been franked with the runner-up, Clock On Tom, going to finish 2nd and then 1st in subsequent back to back handicaps at Beverley.

The lay off means he'll come here fresh and with both his recent displays and his breeding suggesting he'll readily get today's trip, I'm happy to wager he'll fire today. The favourite Authorship will probably attract plenty of support today, meaning we can get a decent price on our selection. Therefore, the call is a 1pt win bet on The Codger at 5/1 with BetVictor. 9/2 seems to be the current general price, but you can always...

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