Stat of the Day, 15th May 2013
The Village was a disappointment yesterday, I'm afraid. He finished 5th, some 20+ lengths off the pace and the less said about it, the better! We backed him at what I thought was only just about fair at 5/2, yet he went off as 7/4 fav and looked anything but.
So, we're looking for a quick return to the winners' enclosure by setting off for West Sussex to look at a Class 4 maiden hurdle. The trip is 2m 2.5f and the ground is expected to be Good to Soft for the eight runners lining up for the...
Now then, unless you were trapped in a cave or something similar, you'll be very aware that Matt gave away some excellent content yesterday: a package of 10 trainer-related angles for finding winners. If you didn't see this, it's still available for a short while right here and it's totally free!
The reason I mention this is that one of the angles refers to a certain trainer bringing horses back from a break and winning with them on their comeback. This got me thinking about whether other trainers were similarly adept, so I did some digging last night / this morning with Stat of the Day in mind. So, I decided to look at horses returning from a break of at least two months and running at the type of odds we go for at SotD ie in the general 5/2 to 11/2 range.
So, they were my parameters and I ran them through the brilliant Horseracebase site (very reasonably priced, but Geegeez readers can get a 7-day trial free of charge by clicking here) and I found that Neil King was quite adept at this tactic, being successful with five of fifteen runners in the last two and a half years, when the horse was returning from a break and suitably fancied in the market to be priced in the 5/2 to 11/2 bracket ie our chosen odds.
Of the ten horses that failed to win, a further five were placed for a place strike rate of 66.67% and even backing them E/W would have given you 20.6pts profit: A ROI of 68.67%: not bad at all at short odds. The 5 winners alone gave a profit of 14.50pts at SP and 19.33pts at Betfair SP, returns of 96.67% and 128.87% respectively.
Samarkand is Neil King's sole runner today and this 5yr old was last seen three and a half months ago and should be suitably rested. Despite today's contest being a maiden, this horse already has a win under his belt, from a flat race over 1m 4f in a Class 4 Handicap. When he ran on the flat, he always gave the impression that he'd be a stayer and his speed across the ground should stand him in good stead today. his raw form figures alone might not be the most inspiring, but if truth be told this is a pretty poor contest today and I'm not entirely convinced that Neil King would send just the one horse on a near 300 mile round trip, unless he was expecting to come home with something.
That said, it's a 1pt win bet on Samarkand at 4/1 BOG with Paddy Power, but for your preferred bookie...