Stat of the Day, 15th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th January 2014

No joy yesterday as a 4th place finish at 3/1 (backed in from 9/2) was the best we could muster from a race where a 25/1 outsider took the rest of the field by surprise.

A little bit of a leap of faith today as we tackle the...

3.55 Newcastle:

An unraced mare out of an unraced dam competing in a mares-only bumper on heavy (soft in places) ground on a wet Wednesday in January isn't generally the first place you'd be looking for a winner, but I did say it was a bit of a leap (although there's no jumping involved today! :D) of faith with his one.

I'm talking about Brian Ellison's 5yr old Lochnell, who can currently be backed at 17/2 BOG with BetVictor, although I'd expect/hope she'll go off shorter than this later.

Brian Ellison's yard is in decent nick at present with four winners from eleven in the last week alone and he has a good record with his debutants: In the last three years he has had 27 winners from the 82 horses aged 4 to 9 running for him for the first time and sent off at 10/1 or under.

This excellent 32.9% strike rate has yielded profits of 61.5pts , an ROI of 74.95%. The record in NH fixtures reads at 10/29 (34.5%) for 31.8pts: a 109.6% ROI (3/9 on soft/heavy for =14pts to boot!)

Mr Ellison's runners also have a good record in the mud here at Newcastle too with a 15/54 (27.8% SR) with runners at 10/1 or under on ground officially described as soft/heavy or somewhere in between like today. Those 15 winners have produced level stakes profits of just over 28.1pts or 52.1% of stakes, making both his debutants and his soft ground runners of interest.

Brian only has Lochnell running today and there is, of course, no form to go off, but the Racing Post say this of her: "...10,000GP 3yo; first foal; dam unraced half-sister to smart bumper/hurdle/chase winner up to 3m1f Cornish Sett and useful bumper/2m-2m5f hurdle/chase winner Major Sponsor; likely to stay well (family of National winner Rhyme 'N' Reason)..."  which in turn gives me some hope.

It's not a particularly strong race, but the presence of a fairly short favourite will increase the odds of the other runners, making the current prices look quite attractive, so with this in mind: it's a safety-first approach today with a 0.5pts E/W bet on Lochnell at 17/2 BOG with BetVictor. You might get a better price by shopping around, so why not...

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