Stat of the Day, 14th November 2012
OK, so I've finally shaken off my cold, it's high time we got SotD off the cold list. Dizzy River never really got involved yesterday and despite our 7/2 recommended price constricting by some 40% down to 85/40 favouritism, he never justified those odds and eventually came home in 3rd place, some 12 lengths off the pace.
So, it's a bit of a "back so soon?" day today, as SotD revisits Monday's track, but we're on the Fibresand as opposed to the turf for this one: a 14-runner 1-mile Handicap in the...
Here at SotD, I look for certain trainers at certain tracks as a starting point and today is no exception, because as soon as I know there's A/W racing at Southwell, I'm quick to see if James Tate has sent any of his horses there. James' record at this Nottinghamshire venue is particularly good and pretty much speaks for itself.
On December 22nd 2011, Dark Falcon was James' first runner at the track and after winning at 3/1 that day, the trainer hasn't looked back since. His overall record here reads 127118171351, that's 6 winners and 2 places from 12 outings, generating fantastic level stakes profits of 18pts. Therefore, all of his runners at the venue merit a second glance.
James has just one runner at the track today: Dubawi Island.
Dubawi Island is contesting only his 4th A/W race today having won a maiden over course & distance here in August and also finishing in the frame on two outings at Kempton. He hasn't fared nearly as well on turf, but an A/W record of 213 coupled with a return to Southwell could see him go close once again. His previous outing was, as I said, a C&D victory, but that doesn't tell the full story. He pretty much made all that day and was still going away at the finish despite being 7 lengths clear. The runner-up that day was Mark Johnston's Centrifugal, who went on to win his next two races quite comfortably.
Martin Dwyer takes the ride today, as he did on that C&D win back in August.
All things considered ie the trainer's record here and the horse's own previous win here and his overall A/W form and the fact that the usual jockey is on board, I think we've a very good chance of making a profit today.
Having checked the markets at 10.20am, I was pleasantly surprised to see Stan James offering 10/1 BOG, so unless I've got this one horribly wrong, there seems to be a very good E/W opportunity for us to finally kick-start November into life. So the play today is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Dubawi Island at 10/1 BOG, but you can always...