Stat of the Day, 14th May 2013
Well, we got the week off to a cracking start yesterday, as jockey William Buick proved what a great reader of race pace he really is. He kept Moma Lee at the rear of the field for what seemed like an eternity and when he finally switched her outside for her challenge, many of us non-experts thought the chance had already gone. Yet, this filly showed a fantastic turn of speed as the frontrunners were made to look like they were treading water and we landed ourselves a nice 4/1, twice the SP of 2/1 to boot.
After only hitting the front inside the final furlong, she still had a winning margin of just shy of three lengths and she looked like she'd plenty left in her. I'm hoping we're saying more of the same tomorrow after we've seen how today's selection, a race course debutant, fares in a Class 6, 2 mile & 1 furlong bumper, where twelve runners will line up for the...
As I've just mentioned, today's selection has never raced before (and neither did his mother), so there's not a great deal to tell you about the horse, The Village, other than the fact that he's a 4 yr old male making his debut in a weak-looking contest and running for a yard that is a dab hand in these events. It's all about the numbers today!
The Village is trained by (and is the sole representative today) of Stuart Crawford, whose career record here at Sedgefield is very impressive indeed: eight wins from twenty-one races, giving a strike rate of 38.1% and level stakes profits of 25.9pts (+123.33%) at Industry SP and 33.03pts (+157.79%) at Betfair SP. Mr Crawford has maintained a healthy strike rate year on year here, with no real purple patch skewing the figures: since the start of 2011, the record is six wins from thirteen (46.15%) giving similar rates of return to his career stats at 14.9pts (+114.62%) at SP and 19.14pts (+147.23%) at Betfair SP.
Now, if career strike rates of 38% and two-year ratios of 46% aren't quite enough for you, let's take a more specific look at how the Crawford yard fares in bumpers here and quite amazingly the record of the eight bumpers he has sent runners to reads 21311131, five winners from eight (62.5%) for profits of 20pts (+250%) at SP and 24.53pts (+307%) on the exchange. These figures incorporate a 4/5 record since the start of 2012 and include a victory in this very race a year ago, Now It's My Turn, which was also ridden by today's jockey Steven Crawford and today's race is Steven's only ride of the day at a track where he is 5 from 9.
This is a pretty weak looking affair and the horses with race experience under the belt haven't really shown much to get excited about, so we'll take a chance on The Village with a 1pt win bet at 5/2 BOG with William Hill, but to see what your bookie has to offer...