Stat of the Day, 14th June 2013
No joy from Shades of Silver yesterday as he finished well down the field who all chased Frankel's half-brother Morpheus home to no effect. In a win to resume winning ways I'm heading North of the Border for a nine runner, seven furlong, Class 6 handicap on good to firm ground, better known to me and you as the....
As regular readers are well aware, one of my angles that I like to exploit is the C&D winner returning to the scene on the back of a winning run ie a horse in form going back to somewhere he/she has run well in the past. It's not entirely scientific, but some tracks land themselves to this angel more readily than others. Musselburgh is one such track: Since 1st January 2011, there have been 71 such runners producing 15 winners, this 21.13% strike rate producing a modest profit of 9.34pts (+13.15% ROI). These are hardly life-changing numbers, but provide a good starting point. Amongst those runners, all 15 winners have been priced at 7/1 or under ie general SotD territory!
Those 15 winners priced at 7/1 or under come from just 52 runners, giving a far more attractive 28.85% strike rate and an equally attractive 28.34pts profit, a return of 54.5% over stakes invested. To this end, I'm going with Jupiter Fidius.
Jupiter Fidius will be ridden by Gemma Tutty this evening and is trained by Gemma's mother Karen. When this mother and daughter combine, they tend to achieve pretty good results. Since the turn of 2011, Karen has utilised Gemma's very handy 7lb claim on twenty-seven occasions, achieving five wins (18.52%) for 59.15pts profit: a return of some 219% over stakes and a record of 3/7 for +15pts when priced below 7/1.
Jupiter Fidius is described by Timeform as a lazy sort, but he won this race last year and returned to form at Newcastle last month after responding well to blinkers, which are reapplied again today. If he turns up here today in the same frame of mind as he did 24 days ago, there's no reason why he can't take this race for the second successive year and at odds of 4/1 BOG, he looks a decent proposition. That 4/1 is available in several places, including Stan James (who I've used!) whilst the remainder offer 7/2, so to see what your bookie is offering, simply...
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