Stat of the Day, 14th July 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 14th July 2012

If yesterday's SotD was an obvious pick, what wasn't obvious was that they'd withdraw the horse!. So a non-runner. Today, we're away to Berkshire, and the…

3.10 Newbury

Saeed bin Suroor was Godolphin's original trainer, and it seems some years since he was 'in form'. But recently the yard has been banging in some winners, and bin Suroor's record at Newbury is hot hot hot, which contrasts with the weather which is wet wet wet.

Specifically, bin Suroor has saddled nineteen winners from 88 runners (22% strike rate) for a profit of 29.51 points, in the last five years. With five year olds and up, he's had three winners from eleven runners for 43.38 units profit, and he's got another big chance today.

The horse in question is ex-Australian sprinter, Soul, who actually finished fourth to Black Caviar in that race at Royal Ascot (the Diamond Jubilee Stakes), beaten a length and a quarter.

That form looks to be the pick of the beasts in here, and he has heavy ground form from Australia too. I'm not going to oversell or over-complicate this. I think he's the best horse in the race, he has winning six furlong form in heavy ground, he actually gets weight from a few of these, and he comes from a stable in form.

5/2 won't be for everyone, but in my opinion, Maarek - another heavy ground horse on the upgrade - makes the market here. Without him, Soul would be close to even money. And I think Soul will beat Maarek. Simples. πŸ™‚

Click here for the latest odds for the 3.10 Newbury.

5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 14th July 2012

  1. Johnny5


    There aren’t many people, tipsters or punters making money on this horrendous suicide betting ground conditions – but your in depth discussion on the 3:10 was absolutely vindicated with your excellent insight

    Top job fella

    And to continue the ‘value’ discussion ad nausium
    – that was a cracking value bet at 3/1 bog when you context your thoughts

    Marvellous Matt !!

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Thanks Johnny5.

      I think a problem for a lot of tipsters is that they can’t change their methodology. In my opinion when the ground is really soft, that is the #1 consideration, almost above overall form, and certainly above recent form.

      If a horse has proven ability in its past on soft or heavy, and has any kind of class edge, it has to be a decent bet. πŸ™‚


  2. Chris Atkinson

    Another great selection Matt, got on today and won a few quid and many thanks for the excellent info. on the site. Stat of the day, TV trends, Well I Declare…..look at them all and helped me to what must be my most profitable summer in 25 years of punting.

    Thanks, Chris

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