Stat of the Day, 14th January 2013
We finally dragged ourselves off the cold list yesterday as Jimmy Quinn rode an almost perfect race on the back of the old stager Kames Park yesterday. He sat and waited and held the horse up until there just enough of a gap in the final furlong and once he hit the front, he wasn't going to be caught. He actually seemed to still have something in reserve. We had 10% shaved off our advised 6/1 price, but even at 5.4/1, we were paid out at almost double the 11/4 SP. (The old value chestnut again!)
At the time of writing this, there were doubts over Plumpton's meeting and I fancy a change away from Wolverhampton, so we're off to not-so-leafy Lingfield today to look at another horse in a purple patch after a previous lengthy losing run. The race in question is a one-mile Class 5 A/W handicap and seven runners are set to go to post for the...
In the last twelve months, Lingfield's polytrack has been kind to Robert Mills' horses and there have been a few appearing here. In fact, Robert has saddled up no less than 31 runners at Lingfiled in the last twelve months to very good effect. Far too many runners for me to give you one of my long form lines, but the results are impressive. Ten winners in that time represents a strike rate of 32.26%, which is not only excellent, it also helps generate profits of some 18.6pts at SP: a welcome profit on stakes of almost 60%.
E/W backers, whilst more cautious in their approach, have nevertheless also been rewarded by backing Mr Mills's horses here: 19 successful bets from the 31 is a 61.3% strike rate for a decent wedge of profit: some 27pts (43.5% POI).
It's hardly going to come as a shock to our regulars to hear that Robert only has the one runner today: the in-form Club House.
Club House embarked on an inauspicious flat campaign last May and had six outings on turf in total, failing to trouble the judges in returning figures of 544765. He had his first A/W run on 25th June and was a losing odds on favourite that day. In fact he had five runs on A/W tracks from 25th June to 8th December in mainly Class 5 events (1 race at Class 4) and he pretty much went the same way as his turf form: 23547 in total.
This sequence took his career stats to 0 wins and just 2 places from 11 runs, but there was little / no consistency in the booking of races for him. The 11 races had been contested at Classes 2 (once), 4 (5 times) and 5 (5 times) and at a staggeringly wide array of distances from 5f (1), 6f (4), 7f (2), 1m (2), 1m1f (1) and 1m2f (1).
Then a month ago today (14/12/12), he was entered in a Class 6 race over a mile (today's Course and Distance) and he returned as a 6/4 winner to break his duck. he was 4th of 9 runners here at Lingfield on New Year's Eve (Class 5: 7 furlongs), before landing back to back Class 4 Handicaps here this month: the latest was another course and distance win last Saturday.
So after a pretty nondescript start to his career, he comes here today as a triple course winner: twice over course & distance and his record here at Lingfield in the last month is 141 for +12.5opts, so he's in a rich vein of form.
He is, of course penalised 6lbs for that latest win, but he is dropping back down in class today and carries a 7lb claimer to boot. All that considered, he still stands a great chance of scoring a 12-day hat-trick, but we'll not be getting anywhere near Saturday's winning odds of 7/1. I'd have thought 2/1 would be nearer the mark.
As it stands, there's does still seem to be a little value in the price on offer, so my play today is a 1pt win bet on Club House at 11/4 BOG with Bet365. You can, of course, always check the odds on offer elsewhere by taking the opportunity to...