Stat of the Day, 13th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th September 2013

The last few days have been quite fruitless her at SotD after a good start to the month and so it continued yesterday with the poor show from Mukhabarat, who finished last of the 6 runners at 7/2 (we'd taken 11/4 BOG).

The official verdict in the media reads: "Tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, weakened final furlong opened 3/1" Having watched the race, I feel there's a little more to it. I don't think that neither he nor the favourite Lucky Di (5th of 6!) got the conditions at all. They may well have coped with the idiosyncracies of Epsom's track, but they both looked to be floundering in soft (and getting softer!) ground.

Neither of those two horses are as bad as they looked yesterday and both will win races on better ground. That however, doesn't help us today as we look to get back on track in the...

2.30 Sandown

The market is usually a pretty good indicator of how Richard Hannon's 2yr olds will perform. Over the last three years, it has been possible to make a profit from just backing all of them priced between Evens and 4/1. Admittedly, you would have placed 852 bets in that time frame, but the 259 winners represent a healthy strike rate of 30.4% and whilst the 6.95% ROI generated from the 59.25pts profit won't allow you to retire, it;s an excellent starting point for today's bet.

Mr Hannon also has a good record with the 2yr olds making their second start after unplaced but not beaten out of sight on debut. In that same 2011/13 period he has saddled up 39 winners from 174 such horses: a strike rate of 22.4% for profits of 101.6pts (58.4% of stakes) and the record this season alone is 15/52 (28.85%) for 0.5pts (+77.9%) profit.

Of those 15 winners this season, 11 of them have come from the 31 runners priced between Evens and 5/1 with a healthy 15.5pts profit. And today, Yaakooum fits that bill.

Yaakooum cost 145,000gns as a yearling and this half-brother to Breton Rock (11271 in his five races to date, including victory at Doncaster this week) was well-regarded enough to be sent off as the 7/4 favourite on his debut at Newbury over 6 furlongs in early August.

He missed the break that day and was always playing catch up, but he did finish the race strongly and there were signs that he wanted to run further. He'll get that additional test of stamina today as he steps to the one mile trip and if he progresses as the Hannon 2yr olds tend to, he should build on the promise he showed in the latter stages of his debut.

He's certain to have benefited from having racecourse experience, and should he live up to expectations a 1pt win bet on Yaakooum at odds of 100/30 might just be a good thing. I'm on this with BetVictor, but the price is also on offer at Coral. As always, I recommend that you...

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