Stat of the Day, 13th October 2013
It was a gutsy performance from 7/2 shot More Aspen last night, but despite her staying on well at the finish, she just couldn't get to the odds on favourite who scored by just half a length.
We got a really good run for our money but ultimately no reward, something I aim to put right in today's...
Where William Buick rides the previously unraced Danjeu for John Gosden as the pair aim to repeat last year's success in this very race.
As this 2 yr old is running for the first time, there's no form or horse stats to go off, so we turn our attention to Mr Gosden firstly and his record with 2yr olds on debut.
If we look at this record over the 2011/13 period, we see that his 152 debutants have all gone off at prices between 13/8 and 25/1 and that 26 (17.11%) of them have gone to score first time out. The resulting profits of 85.63pts are excellent and represent some 56.34% of stakes invested, but there are a couple of larger-odds winners in there.
The best way to analyse the performance of these 152 runners is to break them down via a series of odds filters as follows:
20/1 odds cap: 25 winners from 147 = 17.01% strike rate. Profits of 59.70pts = 40.61% of stakes.
6/1 odds cap: 19 winners from 78 = 24.36% strike rate. Profits of 23.05pts = 29.55% of stakes.
4/1 odds cap: 12 winners from 41 = 29.27% strike rate. Profits of 10.98pts = 26.78% of stakes.
These results are pretty much what I expected. As the odds drop, the strike rate increases and the ROI falls accordingly. However, there's not one unsatisfactory set of numbers there, so I'm quite happy to back all of the qualifying horses this throws out. Danjeu, however, is the only such horse Mr Gosden has running today.
The secondary set of stats I'm going to use to reinforce the selection revolve around the booking of jockey William Buick and his record on the Gosden horses here at Goodwood in recent years. The set of data I'm going to show isn't meant to blow you away, but as a backup to the main selection, they make interesting reading.
Messrs Buick & Gosden have teamed up on 43 occasions for races of 1m4f or shorter here at Goodwood, recording 7 wins (16.28%) and 13.30pts (+30.93% ROI) profit from those races. But tellingly the duo have thrived at the longer end of these races ie races from today's 9f trip through to 12f.
Their record in Goodwood races of 1m1f to 1m4f reads as 6 wins from 25 (24% SR) for 22.25pts (+89% ROI) profit.
So, the play today is a 1pt win bet on Danjeu at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, but as always you really should...
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