Stat of the Day, 13th May 2013
Yesterday's selection pretty much summed up my whole week here at SotD. The selection looked very good on paper, but quite poor in reality. Handsome Buddy was never in contention yesterday, he was held up towards the rear of the field and when finally making progress in the latter stages, made several jumping errors and never threatened the leaders. To his credit, he didn't give up and plodded on to a sixth place finish, but a good 24 lengths shy of winning.
We need this week to be much better than the last, starting today with a trip to the beach. It's a 7 furlongs, Class 6 handicap for 3 yr olds and eleven runners are set to hit the polytrack for the...
John Gosden's recent record here at Wolverhampton is our starting point today, before we drill down further into the numbers. Since the turn of 2010, an impressive 28.4% of his runners here (27 winners from 95) have gone on to win and the yard is 5/11 here in 2013 alone. Of the afore-mentioned 95 runners, 32 of them were ridden by the very talented William Buick, resulting in twelve of those 27 victories: a trainer/jockey partnership with a 37.5% strike rate is always good to have. They've only combined twice this year so far, though, with a 9/4 winner in mid-March and a 4/1 winner in mid-April, so we're looking for a mid-May winner to complete the hat trick.
Today's race is confined to three-year old horses only, and the 2010 to now timeframe from before, Mr Gosden's three-year olds have won exactly one-third of their races (19/57) with a four from eight record this year and when we isolate these horse to assess how they perform under Mr Buick, the results are even better: eight wins (42.11%) and seven places from nineteen with a two from two record in 2013.
The yard itself is in decent enough form, so all we need now is a three-year old trained by John Gosden, ridden by William Buick turning out at Wolverhampton. This is where we'll find today's selection Moma Lee.
Moma Lee's breeding suggests that today's mark of 60 for her handicap debut will be much lower than she'll go on to achieve. She has shown enough in her three previous starts to warrant interest today, as they were at Class 4 once and twice at Class 5 and she steps down into Class 6 company.
Of her three defeats to date, there are mitigating circumstances, she was third in a decent looking Class 4 maiden at Newmarket and then didn't seem to get the one mile trip at Lingfield ast time out, so a drop in both trip and class should prove very beneficial. She'll also be helped by a decent draw (stall 2) and all things considered, the 4/1 BOG widely available looks pretty attractive. I've put my bet on with Stan James today, but the price is on offer pretty much everywhere, so why not...