Stat of the Day, 13th March 2014
We got back on the score sheet with an easy victory for Arabian Heights at Kempton on Wednesday evening, as he hit the front with well over a mile left to run and never looked like relinquishing his lead, finally running out a winner by some 3.5 lengths and it really could have been much more.
When I put the selection up, only Bet365 had the market open and even though their (and subsequently mine) 3/1 BOG wasn't the best on offer during the course of Wednesday, it was still better than the 5/2 SP.
I'm aware that many of you got on at 7/2, which I would have done too had I waited, but I'm trying where possible to get these out to paying subscribers the night before racing. It won't always be possible, but I do know that many of you struggle to get on at work.
We're going chasing next, but still no visit to Cheltenham! Instead I'm tackling the...
Here at SotD, we like to find trainers we can back blindly, because not only do they instantly give us a good chance of securing long-term profits, but we can often drill down into their stats to produce workable micro-systems that don't produce hundreds of bets.
One such trainer is Stuart Coltherd and since the start of 2011, he has been very profitable to follow indeed.
For the 2011/14 period:
31 winners from 260 = 11.92% SR for 210.72pts (+81% ROI) profits.
With an 8/1 cap: 22/85 = 25.9% SR for 60.23pts (+70.9% ROI)
On Good to Soft / Soft ground: 17/128 = 13.28% SR for 152.90pts (+119.5% ROI)
And on good to soft / soft with an 8/1 cap: 12/43 = 27.9% SR for 33.13pts (+77% ROI)
If we then focus on Stuart's record in chase events only during that time:
21 winners from 125 = 16.8% SR for 169.6pts (+135.7% ROI) profits.
With an 8/1 cap: 17/59 = 28.8% SR for 51.5pts (+87.4% ROI)
On Good to Soft / Soft ground: 13/64 = 20.3% SR for 168.8pts (+263.7% ROI)
And on good to soft / soft with an 8/1 cap: 10/33 = 30.3% SR for 30.6pts (+92.7% ROI)
Stuart also has a very good recent record here at Hexham:
Since the start of 2010 : 8 winners from 29 = 27.6% SR for 57.4pts (+198.1% ROI)
In chases: 6/20 = 30% SR for 18.35pts (+91.8% ROI)
With an 8/1 cap: 7/11= 63.6% SR for 34.9pts (+317.6% ROI)
On Good to Soft / Soft ground: 3/6 (50% SR) for 16.4pts (+273.3% ROI) and so on and on, I think you get the picture!
Stuart has three runners here and all are worth at least a second look, but only Fozy Moss runs in a chase here and is therefore, almost by default, our selection.
Fozy Moss may well have only won one race to date, but has finished second on both prior efforts here at Hexham, the latest of which saw him beaten by just a short head and the third placed horse (2 lengths back) then went on to win his next two races.
The 8 yr old Fozy Moss has been kept busy of late and today will be his seventh start in the last 90 days, the most recent of which was just a week ago at Carlisle, but the fact he is turned out so quickly is a bonus for us statisticians, because he now fall into another micro-system relating to fit NH horses being kept busy.
Male chasers, aged 6 to 9, who ran in the last 7 days and have run between 5 and 10 times in the last 90 days have won 86 times from 475 attempts in the last five years. This 18.1% strike rate from all runners has generated level stakes profits of 151.4pts or 31.9% of stakes invested.
Now we very rarely back anything below 5/2 here for SotD (otherwise, we'd have been on Quevega or Faugheen at Cheltenham), so if we were to disregard the 93 runners priced at 9/4 or shorter...
5/2 and above: 67/382 = 17.54% SR for 193.54pts (+50.66% ROI)
5/2 to 12/1 max: 59/271 = 21.77% SR for 119.11pts (+43.95% ROI)
5/2 to 6/1 max: 45/150 = 30.00% SR for 89.47pts (+59.65% ROI) and from all the runners there have been 13 here at Hexham, yielding 4 winners and 3 placers for 25.38pts (+195.23% ROI) profits.
I appreciate that's a lot of stats to take in, but I feel there's enough there to make a case for a 1pt win bet on Fozy Moss at 5/1 BOG with PP. Boylesports are offering the same price, whilst 4/1 and 9/2 seem to be more prevalent. You will, of course, see all the prices in one place, when you...
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P.S. I should probably also have mentioned that the jockey Daragh Bourke's 7lb claim effectively puts the horse on a mark one pound lower than his last win and that Daragh has won on 8 of 19 chasers trained by Stuart Coltherd priced at 8/1 or under with the 42.1% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 28.7pts, or 151% of stakes invested.