Stat of the Day, 13th March 2013
Hab Reeh was easy to back yesterday, as he drifted out from our early 7/1 to an SP of 9/1. As hoped, Amy Ryan kept him involved fairly close to the action, but was run out of it in the sprint to the line. He did actually run pretty well and despite dead heating for 6th place, he was only 3 lengths off the winner.
Still giving Cheltenham a wide berth, unless you want SotD to pick Sprinter Sacre, we're off to Nottinghamshire for some Fibresand action for the heady heights of a Class 5 maiden. We're expecting ten runners to take to the stalls for the seven furlong trip in the...
Relatively new trainer James Tate has had a remarkable start to his new career, especially here at Southwell. His first race here was only as far back as December 2011 when Dark Falcon was returned a 3/1 winner. In total James has now saddled up 6 winners here from just 17 attempts, giving a strike rate of some 35.3% and level stakes profits of 12.83pts (75.5% ROI) at SP. Those who like to back in the place market were rewarded with a 70.6% success rate.
Of those 17 races, five of them were maidens like today's race and James' record in Southwell maidens reads an impressive 12711, three wins and a place from five for level stakes win profits of 3.83 pts (76.6% ROI in keeping with his overall record here).
So, yes, you've probably guessed that James Tate has one runner today and that she goes in a Southwell maiden. Well, you'd be right to think that, as today's selection is the three-year old bay filly Gebayl.
Gebayl is making her seventh start today and more importantly, her second visit to Southwell, where I believe previous form is vital. Southwell's surface is very different to polytracks and represents a different challenge to the general A/W conundrum.
She was edged out by just a nose on her last visit here, but had run well enough to put some eleven lengths between herself and the third placed horse over today's course and distance. She was wearing cheekpieces that day and they are reapplied today.
She didn't seem to handle the Lingfield polytrack as well last time out and didn't really seem to suit the one mile trip that day, so today's reversion to the Fibresand and a trip one furlong shorter should help her go well once more.
The big danger today is the likely odds-on favourite Fraserburgh, but it has to be seen whether that one will take to the surface as readily as Gebayl did on debut here.
The likelihood of an odds-on favourite means we'll get a little (but not a lot!) more bang for our buck today and the call is a 1pt win bet on Gebayl at 100/30 BOG with BetFred (Sky Bet are going 7/2 non-BOG), but I recommend that you...