Stat of the Day, 13th August 2013
Well, I was right that there would still be a bit of value in backing Regal Silk yesterday, despite her being 6/4 when I posted the blog. In fact, she eventually went off as the 5/6 favourite, but was ultimately outpaced in the final furlong, having to settle for second place. No financial return for us, I'm afraid, but we did beat the market, as the price almost halved during the course of the day.
There were a couple of runners that I wanted to put up today that were even too short as a morning price to consider for SotD, but I'd expect both Brave Boy (5.35 race) and Fledged (6.35) to both win at Nottingham, but as there's not enough juice in the prices on offer (the double only pays 13/6!) for this particular part of the site, we're heading North to Cumbria for the...
Where we get a chance to take advantage of a micro system that has served us well in the past, as we put our faith in the Brian Ellison-trained Mixed Message. This 3yr old bay filly makes her 14th start today, but crucially this is her debut for the Ellison yard, who have a fantastic record with horses coming in from other trainers.
Since the start of the 2011 season, horses who run in a handicap for another trainer have won 19 out of 75 on their debut for Brian Ellison. This 25.33% strike rate has given up profits of 54.31pts = 72.41% return on stakes.
And these numbers are improved further to a strike rate of 39.47% (15/38) with horses priced at 6/1 or under. Those fifteen winners helping backers to achieve 34.3pts profit: an ROI of some 90.26% in the process.
Despite this already being Mixed Message's third home at the age of three, it's not an indication of her ability, after three runs in maiden company she has gone on to win twice and make the frame on a further four occasions from just ten attempts, giving her a win strike rate of 20% and a place strike rate of 60%. Backing her to level stakes in those ten races would have given you a profit of some 14.53pts, so she's coming to Brian Ellison with some decent potential.
If brian can work his usual magic and eke a little more out of her, then a 1pt win bet on Mixed Message could well be profitable at odds of 4/1 BOG, despite the 9/2 on offer when I started typing having disappeared! I've gone with BetVictor today, but the 4/1 is pretty widespread as of 10.30am, so why not...