Stat of the Day, 12th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th September 2013

No joy with Finn Class yesterday, folks. It was always going to be a tough challenge for him, which is why I suggested a safety-first E/W bet. In fairness, he wasn't disgraced at all by finishing in 5th position, a length and a half away from providing us with a return from a 13/2 shot.

He gave his running, but didn't quite have the same pickup speed as some of the others around him. Nevertheless, it's going down as a blank day for us and I'm hoping to quickly redress the balance in today's...

5.10 Epsom

Occasionally here on SotD, I have been known to bang on a bit about the talents of a certain Saeed Bin Suroor and today is going to be another of those days! His tremendous record over the years is well documented, but not everyone is aware that he's one of a very rare breed of trainers who you can back blindly when he runs horses for the first time in a handicap contest. And he has delivered the winners on a consistent basis for years.

In fact, since 2007, his record with handicap debutants is 42 winners from 167 = 25.15% Strike Rate and 42.63pts profit = an ROI of 25.53%
Since 2007 and priced between Evens and 6/1: 37/99 = 37.4% SR and 64.7pts profit = 65.34% ROI.

I'm well aware that results from 2007 aren't as relevant now as they were a few years ago, but it has been profitable to follow those horses every single year, hence me going back further than I usually do. However...

For the 2011/13 period, 17 of 78 handicap debutants have won: a strike rate 21.8% (slightly lower than the record since 2007), with profits of 20.95pts representing a return over stakes of 26.86%, a slight increase on the seven-year record.
2011/13 and priced below 6/1: 14 winners from 40 (35% SR) and 26,47pts (+66.18% ROI) profits.

Just the one qualifying runner today in the shape of Mukhabarat, an unexposed 3 yr old making only his fourth start after three promising runs in maidens, once as a 2yr old and twice last month.

Mukhabarat showed some signs of future ability on his debut, despite finishing back in 7th of the 11 runners over 6 furlongs at Yarmouth almost 12 months ago. He had every chance with about 300 yards to go, but faded inside the final furlong and he eventually came home just under 9 lengths behind the winner.

He was then off the track for the best part of ten and a half months before reappearing at Chepstow over 7 furlongs, where he disappointed the market who had sent him off as an 11/10 favourite. Once again he was weak in the final furlong, eventually finishing 3rd of the 8 runners.

He finally confirmed his early promise in his third outing just under four weeks ago, when he was dropped back to 6 furlongs and a hood was applied for the first time. He fared much better that day, staying on well to break his maiden tag at 3/1.

Mukhabarat will be carrying top weight here today, but that alone doesn't concern me too much. This year, top weighted horses in 3 yr old handicaps who finished in the first three last time out have gone on to win 26.4% of their races (160 winners from 607). Blindly backing them has, admittedly only generated a modest 3.47% profit (21.1pts), but that still beats the banks!

Yet, if those top weights are fancied in the market, the market has often been proved right with a win ratio of 95 from 351 (27.1% SR) with those priced between 6/4 and 6/1. Those 95 winners have helped backers to a level stakes profit of 87.9pts, or 25% of stakes invested.

With all of the above in mind, I'm happy to stake a 1pt win bet on Mukhabarat at 11/4 BOG with Paddy Power, although I should point out that those odds are also available at BetVictor and Coral, so why not...

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