Stat of the Day, 12th October 2012
Hmmm, now wasn't yesterday interesting?
When I initially looked at the card, I thought our selection Burj Alzain would have been around a 9/1 shot and couldn't believe we were offered 16/1 from BetVictor. It was only later in the day that I had another close look at the race and the contenders, when it came apparent that we were really looking at a 5/1 horse and that the eventual SP of 9/2 was about right.
I hold my hands up here and admit that I misread the make-up of the race, but not as badly as BetVictor's compiler. Once the other bookmakers formed their markets, the price soon tumbled and for most of the day 6/1 was the best you were getting. Fortunately for me, it was an error that worked in my favour as we got some serious value on the horse, we were basically getting 4/1 for a top three finish on a horse that was 9/2 just to win.
We're at pains sometimes here at geegeez to stress the importance of getting value and despite not getting paid out yesterday, we will make profits by backing horses at much higher odds than they should be.
As for the race itself, Burj Alzain seemed to be buffeted quite a bit on leaving the stalls, struggled to get into stride and dwelt early on. As the race progressed, he seemed to get a little squashed in mid-field before making a late run for the line. At the time, I thought we'd grabbed 3rd place in a tight finish, as did the racing UK commentator, but unfortunately we missed out by a nose, finishing 4th in a race where the first six finishers were only covered by just a length and a half: a handicappers' dream (especially when the front pair were a stone apart in the weights, but only a neck apart in distance!)
Anyway, enough about yesterday, let's try to get back to winning ways with a trip to the Yorkshire mud. Our SotD race today is a one-mile, Class 2 Handicap on heavy ground. Initially we had 16 runners, but a couple pulled out around 0930 this morning, including well-fancied Jo'burg. This not only affected prices, but it also means only 3 places paid now in the...
This 3.05 race is a competitive-looking handicap, but I feel that the overnight rain (34mm overnight) that has moved the predicted going to Heavy will work in our favour with today's selection.
I've decided to go with the mud-loving, seasoned campaigner Osteopathic Remedy, mainly due to the treacherous conditions around today.
This horse absolutely loves it when the going gets tough and the mud is flying around. he comes in to this race in really good form, having won two of his last three starts, all over today's one-mile distance and all three with some cut in the ground. His latest outing was three weeks ago when he won at Ayr on heavy ground in what was his 4th contest on heavy ground in the last two years. The four runs on heavy have yielded two wins and he's 2/2 on heavy over a mile.
His overall record at this distance is quite impressive too: 10 wins from 39 races producing a level stakes profit of 69 pts, whilst his record in this Class of race is 6 wins from 31 for a profit of 35pts. And since May 2010 he has competed 12 times at this level of race over a mile, resulting in 5 wins (+45.5pts at level stakes) and 2 further places (+62pts at E/W).
That win at Ayr three weeks ago was the first time Osteopathic Remedy had been ridden by 7lb-claimer Connor Nichol and the apprentice gets the leg up again today in a bid to repeat the feat. In testing conditions, those seven pounds could make all the difference in what could well be another tight encounter. The one possible negative today is the poor draw, but a wider draw might keep him out of trouble and possibly on some fresher ground than the beaten furrow.
The tightness of this race is reflected in the current best price of 10/1 BOG on offer at bet365, Betfred and Paddy Power, but he is already as low as 8/1 in places. The double-digit odds available lend themselves readily to an each-way bet, so the play today is 0.5pts E/W on Osteopathic Remedy at 10/1 BOG, but you can and should always...
Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.05 York.