Stat of the Day, 12th March 2014
More crossbar rattling at Wolverhampton, as the well-supported Choice of Destiny could only finish second at 9/4. We had, of course, taken a much bigger price earlier on and despite a 10% rule 4 deduction from our 9/2 advised odds, we still held a hefty advantage over SP.
As it was, Desert Colours got first run off the final bend and beat our runner by three parts of a length. We seemed to have every chance on the run-in, but jockey Louis Steward seemed to struggle to keep him on a true line, despite the application of a visor.
More evening A/W action for us to consider for Wednesday's pick, who runs in the...
Since the start of 2011, trainer Ian Williams has found success with 21 of his 95 runners priced below 12/1, who were running at a lower official mark than their last victory and were coming off the back of a string (at least 5!) of consecutive defeats.
This 22.1% strike rate has so far yielded level stakes profits of 43.43pts, an ROI of 45.7%. This runners are split fairly evenly across flat and A/W racing, with the A/W runners showing a 21.05% strike courtesy of 12 winners from 57.
Although this figure is slightly lower than the overall strike rate, the compensation comes when the ROI is increased to 48.7% via profits of 27.74pts at level stakes.
In this same 2011-14 timeframe, Ian has employed the services of a 5lb claiming jockey in handicap contests on 107 occasions, saddling 21 winners (19.6% SR) from those rides. This, in turn has netted a healthy 39.24pts profit, a return of 36.7% above stakes invested.
We can further break down these figures as follows:
On the All-Weather: 9/33 for 39.82pts
In the 13/8 to 12/1 odds range: 20/82 for 62.71pts
At 6/1 or under: 13/39 for 29.51pts
At Kempton: 3/6 for 20.88pts
With George Downing in the saddle: 3/12 for 14.28pts
And you can them perm any combination of those for more profits, but admittedly smaller sample sizes.
Anyway, as you've probably guessed, my selection is priced below 12/1 in an A/W handicap and runs off a lower mark than its last victory which was at least 5 runs ago. Our jockey will be a 5lb claimer, namely George Downing, which leads us to Arabian Heights.
It may well be 14 races since he last won and that was off a mark of 73 over tonight's trip at Wolverhampton, but he was then firmly in the grip of the assessor after a string of decent placed performances eventually saw him being asked to run off 84 in May 2012.
Then, despite taking a 14-month break, his rating was only dropped by 2lbs, which he still wasn't competitive, until he ran 5th at Lingfield a week ago over today's trip. He was dropped down to 63 for that run and the bare result doesn't tell the whole story.
He was, admittedly, only fifth place that afternoon, but was only beaten by a length in a blanket finish and not only does he get to run off the same mark here, his jockey takes a further 5lb off his back and he's dropping down in class.
This must represent the best chance he's had of winning for a very long time and I expect him to step up to the plate for this one. To this end, I'm having a 1pt win bet on Arabian Heights at 3/1 BOG with Bet365.
As is often the case when I make my selections on the night before the race, only Bet365 have opened their book, so if you prefer to hang on for the other firms, the best thing to do is...