Stat of the Day: 12th July 2012
Cuteasafox was the pick yesterday, and while she truncated from an advised 8/1 into 5/1 at the off, she ran more like an 8/1 shot, finishing mid-division. No excuses for her, or us, and we both have something to prove on our respective recent records!
Curiously perhaps, then, I'm taking in a big field handicap at Newmarket's July Festival for today's choice…
An extremely tricky handicap today, which means we'll at least get a decent price about a loser, and at best get a decent price about a winner!
The name in the frame this afternoon is Andrew Balding, a man who is having another fantastic season. His record in July at Newmarket is very good and, in the last four years, he's recorded six winners from 26 runners, specifically with his three year old entries.
From a handful of runners this afternoon at summer HQ, Balding has just one 3yo, Stature. He won last time out over this trip and on ground that was probably too fast; he's run well in this grade over a trip too far; he's a front runner who should be suited by the pace in today's race (i.e. might get an easy lead); and best-jockey-in-the-land Ryan Moore does the steering.
It's my view that as a son of Montjeu he'll be better on today's ground and, though this is ferociously competitive, he has robust place prospects at least, if Moore can control the race from the front.
Stature is 18.5 on the exchanges, best priced 14/1 and best BOG price of 12/1, so take anything bigger than 16.0 on the exchanges is my advice. I'm about to! I'm also backing the place, and each way is recommended if you're using a traditional bookie.
Make sure you check the link below in case it's drifted out when you read this…
Click here for the latest odds for the 2.25 Newmarket.