Stat of the Day, 12th December 2013
The fog descended yesterday in the South of the country and took the bulk of the Lingfield card and all of the Kempton meeting with it.
This meant that we had a no-bet day, but I'm assured the fog has lifted and normal service is to be resumed at Kempton this evening, where we're staying for the last race on the card, the...
Where my selection is the 9/2 BOG (Hills) shot Upavon, who returns to action exactly three weeks after an excellent 33/1 victory over course and distance, but as you can see, he's more fancied today!
Quite often, you'll get horses winning at a decent price and then getting sent off considerably shorter next time out and they then go on to complete back-to-back victories.
This year alone 439 horses who won at odds of over 8/1 have been sent out at odds of 6/1 or under next time out when running in the same class of race. That's hardly surprising, really, you'd expect them to be a little shorter after a win at the same level. What is surprising, though, is that 104 of the 439 have "doubled up" for a decent strike rate of 23.7% and profits of 84.5pts, or 19.25% of stakes.
We try to find an ROI greater than that for SotD, but it's a good starting point. Using the same theory as above, the horses that won at 20/1 or over last time out and run at 6/1 or less this time whilst staying at the same class are 27/89 this year: a strike rate of 30.3% producing excellent profits of 6.18pts, an ROI of 69.5%, which is more like it!
Upavon is also one of my "back to form" horses. Regular readers will know what I mean by this, but for the benefit of the others: horses come in and out of form for a variety of reasons, but when they hit form and win, they're often turned out fairly quickly to capitalise.
When a horse wins after a string (of at least three!) unplaced efforts and is turned out on the Kempton A/W within 30 days of that win, the results are surprisingly good. There have been 24 winners from 95 such horses this year alone: a 25.3% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 40.2pts (42.3% of stakes invested) at all odds.
Of those 95 runners, 55 were sent off at 6/1 or under, producing 21 (38.2% SR) winners and 33.9pts (+61.6% ROI) profits.
All of the above aside, Upavon is proving to be a useful A/W horse with three wins, a second and a third to his name from just six starts and we know that he gets both track and trip. He's only up 2lbs for that latest C&D win and he stayed on strongly that day and looks a real contender today. Upavon is currently trading at 4/1 generally, but I've just got on with a 1pt win bet at 9/2 BOG with William Hill, but for the current prices...