Stat of the Day, 11th October 2012

Stat of the Day 11/10

Stat of the Day 11/10

Stat of the Day, 11th October 2012

It was another good result for us yesterday, as Dulkashe stayed on well at the end to finish 3rd at 12/1, a point longer than our advised 11/1 E/W bet. With the bookies paying 1/4 odds on that one, it meant we doubled our money without winning. Dulkashe came from last to third finishing strongly and whilst not being sure if she could have won or not, an earlier move might have paid dividends, as might staying closer to the leaders!

We're heading back South to Sunbury today for an evening handicap on the polytrack. Our SotD selection today is taking on 13 other rivals in a Class 2 Handicap over 7 furlongs in the...

7.50 Kempton

Trainer Gerard Butler has a decent record at Kempton, if not the most prolific. His strike rate might well only be just over 18%, via 10 winners from 54 in the last 2 years, but those 10 winners have helped him to a level stakes profit of 36pts: a return on your stakes of almost 67%.

In those 54 races, 29 of Gerard's horses made the frame, an impressive place strike rate of 53.7%: ideal for anyone looking for an E/W bet.

In true SotD style, Mr Butler is only running one horse today and it's here at Kempton. The horse in question is a lightly-raced 4 yr old by the name of Burj Alzain. This horse has made a decent start to his career, making the first three home in all four UK starts to date (formline: 1133) and finished 4th of 13 over at Dundalk last Friday, where I think he found the 6f trip a little too sharp for him, as he was staying on well at the finish.

Both of Burj Alzain's wins to date have come here at Kempton, where his record reads 113 and both victories came on occasions when Neil Callan was the jockey and Neil takes the ride again today.

Neil Callan is no slouch when it comes to getting around Kempton either. From a decent enough sample size (some 195 rides), he has won 17% of his races generating 45pts profit (23% ROI) and his place strike is a decent enough 40%.

So, we've a trainer who does pretty well here and a jockey with a decent record too, teaming up on a horse that likes the surface. The drop back into handicap class will also suit Burj Alzain today, as he has been running in better quality races than this without disgracing himself. And the draw has been quite kind too, he's drawn in 5 of 14 and a mark of 98 is more than fair here and represents a good chance of continuing his record of being at least placed in all four of his previous UK runs.

At the time of writing this, not all firms had priced this one up and it's a fairly open contest, i was expecting around the 9 or 10/1 mark for an E/W bet, so I was more than happy to see BetVictor offering 16/1 BOG for Burj Alzain (Bet365 & Ladbrokes were both 14's), so it's a 0.5pt E/W bet at 16/1 BOG for me today, but as always, I recommend that you...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 7.50 Kempton.

 

9 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 11th October 2012

  1. Chris A

    The fancy prices went quick this morning Chris, managed to get 10s with Bet 365….still a winner at that price will do me!! Backed the horse last week as it was one of those why has he sent it to Dundalk type of bets, hoping to recoup and more.

    Good luck.

    Thanks, Chris A

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Chris,

      I had to be up and about this morning with some stuff to do. The piece went online at 7am and the 16/1 was still available with BetVictor at 8.20 when I left the house.
      10’s is pretty much where I thought the market should be, though.

      Chris (W!)

  2. thomas

    it’s the idiots who once again spoiled it for everyone by backing it on betfair for a couple of hundred.i was watching the b/f movement and it was round about the time the bookies where pricing up that the below happened,so the bookies machines will obviously follow b/f.
    if it was spread around the books it would still be 12’s
    11.50 £2 £68
    12.00 £6 £54
    12.50 £15 £16
    13.00 £41
    13.50 £54
    14.00 £7

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Which in itself, is another reason for us not to post these up too early as well.
      It’s just that I’m off out for a couple of hours now, so wouldn’t be here at my usual 10 to 10.30 slot.

      Chris

  3. Sloanie

    Vey unluck lads, I watched the commentary on racingpost and they gave Burj Alzain as 3rd before ammending it. What a gamble…………… Keep up the good work Chris!
    P.S. Have you any relations in Ireland? My missus is a Worrall…… Lovely people……..

  4. Johnny5

    Tough Chris – almighty gamble !!

    Dwelt badly at the start and was always in catchup … Didn’t quite nick the place win .

    Good run you’re on fella …best if luck ahead

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