Stat of the Day, 11th August 2013
Yesterday brought a bit of deja vu to proceedings as once again our runner ran well early on, led and faded once headed. The official line was "Soon led, headed 2f out, no extra final furlong" . We backed him at 7/2, which was his eventual SP, having been as low as 11/4 earlier in the day and the best he could manage was 5th, beaten by just over 4 lengths by Glenard who avenged the earlier defeat at Ascot.
It's not good fayre today, but we'll take our chances in the...
Rae Guest is one of a small number of trainers who have been profitable to follow blindly in recent times. His yard's in good nick at the moment (4 winners from 16 in the last fortnight) and since the start of the 2011 campaign has had 70 winners from 411 runners: a strike rate of 17.03% giving rise to a modest 45.87ts profit at betfair SP. An 11.16% ROI is an excellent starting point from which to pick out his better runners.
Of those 411 runners 232 ran in handicaps contests, where his strike rate was lightly better at 18.53%, courtesy of 43 winners, This helped him raise his ROI by some 5 points to 16.41% with level stakes profits of 38.08pts. We're now moving in the right direction, but at SotD, we just want a little bit more!
So, I decided to look at how his handicap runners performed inside our own 6/1 max odds parameters that I generally impose for the 1pt win bets, and in all handicap races since the start of the 2011 season, Mr Guest has saddled up 35 winners from 109 horses sent off at 6/1 or under: a tremendous 32.11% strike rate yielding 58.9pts profits, a return of over 54% ROI. Now we're talking!
Incidentally he's 6/21 with those in the last two months.
Chris Catlin has ridden 25 of the 109 horses mentioned above and has been successful 9 times (36% SR) producing 18.03pts (+72.12% ROI) profit. And not only is Chris in great form himself (10 winners from 41 for 36.23pts profit in the last month), he has also won 3 from 12 races here at Windsor this year, amassing some 38.1pts (+317.50% ROI) profit to boot.
So, all I/we need is a Rae Guest-trained handicapper priced at 6/1 or under and ridden by Chris Catlin. Could we be any more specific?
Well, as it happens, Rae has just one runner here today and Milika is a 4yr old contesting a Class 4 Fillies' Handicap and she will be partnered by Chris Catlin for what looks like his best chance of winning from the three rides he's booked for.
Milika had a decent season last year, winning once and making at least the first four home in four of her five other races. She made her seasonal reappearance at Newmarket eight days ago after a 9 month break and she clearly needed the run. She finished back in 9th place that day, but that was a far tougher contest than she faces here, as she drops down to Class 4 racing.
I fancy her to come on for that last run and take advantage of what is a weaker field here. If she can regain some of last season's form, then Milika looks a very good bet at 4/1 BOG with BetVictor, but as always, I highly recommend that you...