Stat of the Day, 10th October 2012
A gutsy run from Eamaadd yesterday who looked comfortable in the lead until around the 7 furlong mark, when Andrea Atzeni then had to get work to try and drive our mount home over the final two furlongs. Unfortunately, he was swamped by two faster finishers, losing the lead inside the final furlong and then losing 2nd position on the line.
Fortunately we'd taken 8/1 E/W about what was eventually a 7/2 shot, so the value was definitely there, as was a trading opportunity (traded as low as evens in play!). So it was a small 0.3pts profit on the race, but it's still 30% in 2 minutes and it's another placer for Roger Varian at Wolverhampton making 16/23!
We're not travelling far from Wolverhampton for today's contest, just 60 miles or so to the North East for a 13-runner (was 16!), 10-furlong Class 4 Handicap aka the...
Luca Cumani doesn't run many horses in handicap company at Nottingham, but when he does, the results are generally very good. Since May 2010, he has been represented by just 10 handicappers at this track and the results were 1412166221, a 40% win ratio generating 13.1pts profit at SP and a place strike rate of 80%: quite remarkable.
The last of those runs was a course and distance victory at 7/2 for today's selection Dulkashe.
Dulkashe's maiden form was pretty good, placing in each of her three races before improving to land a fillies' handicap on her return to racing after a 7-month break in May. She will have needed last month's reappearance (6th of 13 at Sandown) as a pipe-opener and should give a much better account of her self today.
She comes up against a very warm favourite in the shape of Sunpass, who is currently as low as 4/5 in places, but this race is no penalty kick for the favourite and the shortness of that price opens the door to some E/W value. This possible added value, allied to Luca's record of 8 places from 10 steers me towards an E/W bet today.
Having checked the market again, I'm happy to take on the favourite in the knowledge that we can get 11/1 BOG with Stan James, Ladbrokes and William Hill, so it's 0.5pts E/W today on Dulkashe at 11/1 BOG (12/1 non-BOG also available at Sporting Bet) but you can always...
Click here for all the latest odds for the 4.30 Nottingham.
PS Luca Cumani has another handicapper on the course today: Spring Tonic is generally a 4/1 shot in the 5.00 race, but this is an apprentice event, which aren't the most reliable of contests and I think I'd probably want a little more than 4/1 personally.