Stat of the Day, 10th May 2013
No joy yesterday as Jive was 5th home at 5/1, after being towards the back of the field until the latter stages. he then made some headway and was staying on, but the race had already been won by the favourite who blasted out of stall three (again!) and made all to won very comfortably. However there was some vindication in the stat I used yesterday, in that another of Richard Hannon's 2 yr olds was a 5/1 winner at Goodwood on its second outing.
A return to winning ways for SotD is required, though and as such, we're crossing the Irish Sea to visit County Down and the last race of the evening. It's a NH Flat race and the trip is a shade under 2m 2f on good ground. We're expecting 11 runners to line up here to contest the...
Trainer Noel Meade has an excellent record here at Downpatrick. In fact, since 2010, this course has provided him with his best win strike rate of all the courses he has sent runners to: 16 winners from 37 is a fantastic return and this 43.24% strike rate has been responsible for producing level stakes profits of 35.61pts (+96.24%) at SP and 41.55pts (+112.3%) at betfair SP.
These figures are more than enough to warrant interest in any runner Noel sends here and tonight there's just the one: Gaius Marius, who contests the bumper at the end of the meeting. Mr Meade's record in bumpers here also more than stands up to scrutiny. Of those 37 runners mentioned above, eight have run in NH Flat races here with a record that reads 11134113 : five winners and to places from eight giving a fantastic 62.5% win strike rate. The return on stakes is lightly lower that his general return here, the level stakes profits are 5.44pts (+68%) at Industry SP and 5.72pts (+71.5%) at Betfair SP, but still definitely worth having.
The horse itself has only run once before, finishing 4th at Navan on heavy ground over 2 miles and it is expected that not only will he come on for having that first run under his belt, he should also appreciate the firmer ground here this evening. Noel Meade's runners in bumpers here tend to run at an average price of just over 5/2, but the presence of a near evens money favourite today should give us a little more juice in the market and I was hoping to get around 7/2 today, so I was very pleased to see 4/1 on offer from Paddy Power at 10.10am.
There's no guarantee that warm favourite (who looks the best horse on paper!) will fire first time out so therefore the call today is a 1pt win bet on Gaius Marius at 4/1 BOG with Paddy Power today, but please do...