Stat of the Day, 10th December 2013
No excuses and no regrets from yesterday, Cape of Hope just wasn't good enough on the day. He ran well enough to the 2 pole, and when he was asked for an effort, he wasn't as quick home as three other horses.
No deep analysis needed, he was just beaten by better performers and the end result was a 4th place at 100/30, a good third shorter than our 5/1 advisory price.
We might lose from time to time, but long-term profit is guaranteed when we get 5/1 about 10/3 shots.
More A/W action for Tuesday as we tackle the...
Much has already been said elsewhere about the prevalence of horses with a (USA) suffix when running at Southwell, yet they still make a profit for backers, despite it being common knowledge. This, of course, can't last forever and it won't be long before it becomes unprofitable to just back them all blindly.
That said, today's selection is a (USA) horse running at Southwell but I've narrowed down the criteria somewhat to arrive at a position where I've just placed a 1pt win bet on Hussar Ballad at pretty fair odds of 4/1 BOG with Bet365 and here's why...
In the 2011/13 period, 4-year-old males with the (USA) suffix running races from 5 furlongs up to 1m4f have won 22 races from 86 attempts, a strike rate of 25.6% and this has produced level stakes profits of 100.46pts , or 116.8% of stakes.
Today's contest is a Class 6 contest, where these American runners have won 12 from 41 (29.3%) in the same 2011/13 time span for profits of 55pts (+134.1%) and all 12 winners came from the 34 runners priced at 12/1 or under for a strike rate of 35.3% and level stakes profits of 62pts, the equivalent of a whopping 182.4% of stakes invested.
The last such winner of those 12 was today's selection Hussar Ballad, who won here at Southwell three weeks on his only A/W run to date. He took to the surface readily and quickened once he hit the front with a furlong to go, scoring by a good 4 lengths. He has been raised 9lbs for that win, but it is hoped/expected that the drop back in trip will help him cope with the added burden, plus there's every opportunity that he'll come on again for that first effort.
Some of you may already have drilled down into the USA stats and arrived at a similar conclusion, but you might not be as aware of a secondary stat to back up our selection.
With an official rating (OR) of 59, Hussar Ballad is top rated for this race and also top weight accordingly, but this isn't an issue. In 2013, top-rated male runners running at Southwell in the same class of race as they did last time out have a really good record. In Class 5 and 6 contests, when sent off at prices between Evens and 6/1, they've already notched up 15 winners from 45 attempts.
A 1 in 3 strike rate is excellent for top weighted horses and has been able to provide 18.9pts profit, an ROI of 42%.
There's enough there to make me think there's some mileage in the selection, so the play for Tuesday is a 1pt win bet on Hussar Ballad at 4/1 BOG with Bet365. I've written this on Monday evening, so if you're only seeing this on Tuesday, I strongly suggest that you...