Stat of the Day, 10th April 2013

Stat of the Day: 06/04/13

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th April 2013

At last, a nice winner yesterday, Dolphin Rock obliging at 9/2 (having been nominated at 15/2).

We're taking on a very short priced horse today, in the...

4.40 Nottingham

Michael Appleby is a man on the up. He's had a fantastic all weather season over the winter, and his record at Nottingham is stellar. In handicap races at the track he's had seven winners and five places from 25 runners, and that's for a win profit of 60 points. Betting those horses each way returned a profit of 78.2 points.

So, simply, he has one handicap runner this afternoon: Ivy Port. This lass has only run on the all weather to date, so we have to trust her to act as well on turf. If she does, she's a progressive profile. I do have a slight niggle about the ground, which is good, as I suspect she might be slightly better with cut.

But she's yet to race on turf and she's a price which allows us to take that chance. The grade - Class 5 - is fine, as she won in that last time out (by five lengths); and I'm hopeful she'll at least make the frame at 10/1 with bet365 BOG.

The reason she's such a big price is because of an odds on favourite, Singersongwriter. She's got top weight, has yet to race on good ground too, and has been off for 166 days. Of course, she might be a class above these, but at 4/6, I'm happy to take her on.

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.40 Nottingham

 

bet365

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 10th April 2013

  1. damo

    OK this 1 has potential.Appleby is a trainer i follow based on his exploits with ART SCHOLAR who is 1 of my fav horses in training.I’v backed him 12 times and had 7 wins inc 25-1 20-1 and 2 2nds who incidentally accounted for 31 of those win pts with 2 wins and a 2nd at 17-2 from 3 starts at Nott.If ever your gonna get an odds on shot beat this is the time of yr to do it as not all horses come back the same after a winter break.Looks very open race on paper if u take out the fav and 10-1 is more than fair.May b worth keeping an eye on his few other runners around the country too.He has BEYEH in the 5.20 which admittedly i’v reluctantly opposed but i do consider a potential danger at a decent price too.He has T P Queally who has a good strike rate for Appleby riding 1 of his in the 1st at Nott too in a maiden.Personally i’d give that 1 a swerve as i don’t do maidens generally. WIN or LOSE this is a good selection imo… nice job matt 😉 in case your wondering y i like this and how this fits into my methodology its because i focus on LTO winners and potential improvers near the bottom of handicaps.. it’s how i find a lot of horses who go on winning runs and this 1 ticks a lot of boxes and may well b a horse to stay on the right side of regardless of todays result.There’s a little bit more to my selection process then that but i can’t share all the good stuff can i 😉

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Odds on shots get beat all year, Damo. In fact, their ROI is worst in June, historically.

      With respect, please don’t present yourself as THE expert here. It’s not a forum.

      Matt

  2. damo

    No worries Matt… point taken! Wasn’t trying to steal the limelight or anything as i have nothing to gain from it anyway.Just voicing my opinion and giving u an insight into why i like this selection over other selections..As u said this isn’t a forum and perhaps it’s not the right place to do it.Sorry,wont happen again.Damn! i bet u think i’m just out to give u a hard time which is not the case.Don’t respond to this as i know yer a busy man.Just crack on and keep churning out them winners as like u said yer own personal form on here is good which i would agree with. TC 😉

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