Stat of the Day, 10th April 2013
At last, a nice winner yesterday, Dolphin Rock obliging at 9/2 (having been nominated at 15/2).
We're taking on a very short priced horse today, in the...
Michael Appleby is a man on the up. He's had a fantastic all weather season over the winter, and his record at Nottingham is stellar. In handicap races at the track he's had seven winners and five places from 25 runners, and that's for a win profit of 60 points. Betting those horses each way returned a profit of 78.2 points.
So, simply, he has one handicap runner this afternoon: Ivy Port. This lass has only run on the all weather to date, so we have to trust her to act as well on turf. If she does, she's a progressive profile. I do have a slight niggle about the ground, which is good, as I suspect she might be slightly better with cut.
But she's yet to race on turf and she's a price which allows us to take that chance. The grade - Class 5 - is fine, as she won in that last time out (by five lengths); and I'm hopeful she'll at least make the frame at 10/1 with bet365 BOG.
The reason she's such a big price is because of an odds on favourite, Singersongwriter. She's got top weight, has yet to race on good ground too, and has been off for 166 days. Of course, she might be a class above these, but at 4/6, I'm happy to take her on.