Stat of the Day, 1st May 2013

Stat of the Day : 1/5/13

Stat of the Day : 1/5/13

Stat of the Day, 1st May 2013

No joy for the Turner/Bell combination yesterday as both Sunningdale Rose (3rd of 5) and our selection George Cinq were well beaten. Hayley seemed like she was producing George Cinq at just the right time. The 3/1 shot had been kept covered up and when she pulled him out two furlongs from home, I was just waiting for the burst to the line. Hayley pressed the button and there was little response to be honest and a 2.75 length defeat was the outcome, back in 4th place.

We're off to Nottinghamshire today for a Class 5 Handicap Hurdle over two miles, four and a half furlongs, where the going is expected to be good for the ten runners contesting the...

5.30 Southwell:

Today we turn to another familiar SotD name, Charlie Longsdon, as I noticed last night that he has a very good record in recent years with horses making their first run for his yard. Sometimes, a horse needs a change of scenery / tactics to get the best out of them and certain trainers are more adept than others at resurrecting a horse's form.

Mr Longsdon is one such trainer, having secured 32 winners from 140 yard debutants since the start of 2011. This 22.9% strike rate over the last 28 months has yielded a level stakes profit of 149.21pts, a return on investment of over 106.5%: a nice chunk of change indeed.

Our selection today, Brass Monkey, is a lightly-raced 6 yr old gelding whose previous form suggests that he'll enjoy the good ground underfoot, as he has really struggled in softer conditions. He won a bumper here at Southwell for Sarah Humphrey almost a year ago (15th May 2012) on his second attempt, but has struggled over hurdles in three races since then in conditions described as soft (twice) and heavy, where he clearly didn't get the ground, but did complete the races to gain today's handicap mark of 88.

Today is Brass Monkey's handicap debut and he'll also be assisted by the booking of the best jockey to have ridden him so far (Richard Johnson), this addition plus the switch to the new yard and their record with debutants allied to the horse's previous course victory make me confident of a good show today and I'm happy to place my shilling on Brass Monkey at 7/2 BOG.

That price is quite wildly available, so for your choice of bookmaker, simply...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.30 Southwell.

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