Tag Archives: Yarmouth racecourse

Stat of the Day, 18th September 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.00 Redcar : Star Shield @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 10/3 (Held up mid-division, headway 2f out, every chance over 1f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Restless Rose @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner (was 9 last night!), Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good  ground worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old filly has been the bridesmaid on each of her last two starts, but not beaten by much either time. She went down by a neck 3 weeks ago and then by half a length to a better horse six days ago. Both races were at today's class and distance and off today's mark of 74, but Marco Ghiani takes the ride here and his 7lb claim could make all the difference today (especially as her main rival Lady of Aran is now one of the two overnight non-runners).

Trainer Stuart Williams does well turning horses back out quickly and since the start of 2017, his runners racing within a week of their last run are 22/94 (23.4% SR) for 35pts (+37.2% ROI) profit, from which the following are relevant today...

  • 21/87 (24.1%) for 31.9pts (+36.7%) in handicaps
  • 21/68 (30.9%) for 42.5pts (+62.5%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 18/62 (29%) for 40.3pts (+65.1%) on the Flat
  • 18/57 (31.6%) for 53.6pts (+94%) in fields of 5 to 9 runners
  • 13/41 (31.7%) for 50.3pts (+122.6%) during July to September
  • 12/32 (37.5%) for 26.2pts (+81.8%) from those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 27.3pts (+59.3%) from 4 to 6 yr olds
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 31.5pts (+121.3%) at the same class & distance as LTO
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 7pts (+53.8%) on Good ground
  • 3/10 (30%) for 10.3pts (+103%) with Marco Ghiani in the saddle
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.75pts (+97.3%) here at Yarmouth

...whilst during June to September at odds of 8/1 and shorter in 5-9 runner Flat handicaps, the above 94 runners are 12 from 24 (50% SR) for 35.4pts (+147.3% ROI) profit, from which those racing at the same class/distance as LTO are 5 from 5 for 16.6pts (+332% ROI).

And as the above contains a 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.75pts (+97.3%) snippet here at Yarmouth, I'll finish by mentioning that Stuart Williams' handicappers sent off at Evens to 7/1 are 17/70 (24.3% SR) for 18.3pts (+26.1% ROI) here at Yarmouth over the last six seasons, including...

  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 23pts (+120.9%) after a 2nd/3rd place finish LTJO
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 11pts (+60.9%) with females
  • and 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.8pts (+77.1%) over this 6f course and distance...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Restless Rose @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Sky, Hills Betfair & PP at 6.00pm on Tuesday with plenty of 11/4 knocking about too, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th July 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.00 Wolverhampton : Poet's Pride @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Prominent, ridden 2f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong, beaten by 1.5 lengths

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Soloist @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m6f on Good To Firm worth £3429 to the winner...

Why?...

In an attempt to break the current cold spell, I'm going back to basics and simply using the information that we all have access to every day : the racecard, it's green icons and also my angles report (the red number next to the H2H icon)...

My personal list of possible bets for today has the following abbreviations next to this horse's name : JF14/30, TF 7/14/30, TJ, TJ30/365 & TC and I'll now briefly explain their relevance today.

JF30 : jockey Danny Tudhope is 31/122 (25.4% SR) for 92.1pts (+75.5% ROI) over the last 30 days, including 19/67 (28.4%) for 19.3pts (+28.8%) in the past fortnight.

TF7/14/30 : trainer William Haggas is 32/109 (29.4%) for 18.8pts (+17.2%) over the last 30 days, 18/53 (34%) for 21.1pts (+39.8%) over the past fortnight and 8/26 (30.8%) for 3.92pts (+15.1%) in the last week.

TJ & TJ30/365 : Messrs Haggas & Tudhope are 37/109 (34%) for 28.9pts (+26.5%) since the start of 2017, while more recently they are 20/53 (37.7%) for 27.3pts (+51.4%) in the past year and 5/12 (41.7%) for 12.5pts (+104.1%) in the last 30 days.

TC : Since 2013, William Haggas' record here at Yarmouth stands at 47/160 (29.4% SR) for 34.5pts (+21.6% ROI), from which his handicappers sent off at 5/1 or shorter are 20 from 50 (40%) for 22.8pts (+45.6%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Soloist @ 7/2 BOG as offered by at least half a dozen major players at 7.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th June 2019

Thursday's pick was...

3.30 Newcastle : Tammooz @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, driven to chase leader 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace, no impression in 3rd inside final furlong)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Scale Force @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Good ground worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?...

Here we have a 3 yr old gelding making his ninth start and although he doesn't win as often as his handlers would like (just 1 from 8 so far), he does tend to be there or thereabouts in most contests, having made the frame five times so far and was a runner-up narrowly beaten by a neck at Wolverhampton last time out. That was just four days ago when he was collared and headed late on by a previous Wolverhampton course and distance winner.

Of his eight runs so far, he has three runner-up finishes from four handicap runs and has finished 222 in his three starts in a Class 5 handicap. He actually has one win and four places from five efforts in this grade (31222) and was placed in his only previous run here at Yarmouth (also over this C&D), he was placed in his only run under today's jockey, 7lb claimer Cieren Fallon and was also placed on his only previous effort after less than a week's rest.

His trainer, Gay Kelleway has the green TC1 icon next to her name on the racecard, signifying her 4 from 18 (22.2% SR) record here at this track over the last year, but going back further we can see that she has consistently done quite well in lower grade handicaps here. The vast majority of horses I back (generally, not just on SotD) are in the 9/4 to 12/1 range and at these kind of odds, Gay's Class 5 & 6 handicappers are 10 from 57 (17.5% SR) for 30.2pts (+53% ROI) since 2010. So, not a lot of runners but a nice profitable niche that includes of relevance today...

  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 23.2pts (+66.3%) in the June-August period
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 29.1pts (+112.1%) from male runners
  • 7/38 (18.4%) for 26.53pts (+69.8%) after less than three weeks rest
  • 7/38 (18.4%) for 18.38pts (+48.4%) since 2014
  • 5/20 (25%) for 18.6pts (+93%) from 3 yr olds
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 23.4pts (+111.4%) finished 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • 5/32 (15.6%) for 6.59pts (+20.6%) with no previous handicap win
  • 3/6 (50%) for 22.03pts (+367.2%) over this 5f C&D
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 21.45pts (+268.1%) off a mark (OR) of 70
  • and 3/12 (25%) for 6.18pts (+51.5%) in 3 yo only races

And with Scale Force being turned out quite quickly after his last run, it's possibly worth knowing that since 2016, Gay Kelleway's runners turned out just 4-10 days after their last run are 20 from 133 (15% SR) for 138.2pts (+103.9% ROI), which is in stark contrast to her record with all her other runners in this period (7.2% SR and a loss of 33.9% of all stakes) and from those 133 quickly-turned out runners...

  • those racing over 5f to 1m are 16/96 (16.6%) for 116.9pts (+121.8%)
  • males are 12/76 (15.8%) for 121.9pts (+160.4%)
  • and 3 yr olds are 8/48 (16.6%) for 118.6pts (+247%)

...whilst 3 yr old males racing over 5f to 1m are 6 from 27 (22.2% SR) for 114.2pts (+422.9% ROI), with those ridden by a claiming jockey winning 4 of 17 (23.5%) for 115.9pts (+681.9%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Scale Force @ 7/2 BOG as offered by pretty much everyone at 6.50pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.05 Brighton : Dark Poet @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, no impression final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

Seven of today's ten runners are returning from breaks of six months or more and with quick ground expected, some of them might well get found out for fitness here. I've taken a price that looked (IMO at least) to represent excellent value in taking on a short-priced (as low as 13/8 when I made my selection) favourite who steps up in both trip and class for a handicap debut off a mark (81) that might be on the high side, especially after 10 months away from the track.

Our boy has been around the block a few times and it's admittedly been a while since he last won and he's clearly not the force of old, but we should remember that was a winner at Class 2 off a mark of 91 last year and now runs off a career low mark. He is 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 24.1pts (+114.8% ROI) over 7f on the Flat including 3 from 5 (60%) for 15.94pts (+318.8%) in cheekpieces and hails from a yard with a decent record at this venue...

...as Stuart Williams-trained handicappers sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 are 15 from 57 (26.3% SR) for 24.6pts (+43.1% ROI) over the past five seasons here at Yarmouth, from which...

  • those with a run in the previous 25 days are 12/42 (28.6%) for 22.2pts (+52.8%)
  • those rated (OR) 70-85 are 10/31 (32.3%) for 31.3pts (+100.9%)
  • those rated (OR) 70-85 with a run in the previous 25 days are 8/22 (36.4%) for 26.2pts (+119%)
  • at Class 4 : 6/14 (42.9%) for 25.3pts (+180.6%) : all rated 70-85
  • and at Class 4 with a run in the previous 25 days : 5/10 (50%) for 22.33pts (+223.3%) : all rated 70-85

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Tuesday and Bet365 were a half point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st July 2018

Monday's Pick was...

2.00 Ayr : Mecca's Spirit @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Dwelt, behind, headway over 3f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong. but beaten by 4L)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

1.40 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Emily Goldfinch 9/2 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap  for 3yo+ over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

A 5 yr old mare who won here over course and distance two starts ago in a higher grade than today and although she's now rated 6lbs higher than that run, talented claimer Ryan Rossa takes the ride and is more than good value for a 3lb claim.

Both her career wins have been over a 7f trip, both were on good to firm ground (she has 2 wins and a place from 5 on this going) and one was of course over this track and trip.

Her trainer Phil McEntee's handciappers racing over 6/7 furlongs are 40/301 (13.3% SR) for 109.3pts (+36.3% ROI) since the start of 2016 and these include the following of relevance today...

  • 4/5 yr olds are 27/134 (20.1%) for 166.9pts (+124.6%)
  • 6-10 days since last run : 14/84 (16.6%) for 77.1pts (+91.8%)
  • on good to firm ground : 6/44 (13.6%) for 62.8pts (+142.7%)
  • at Yarmouth : 4/30 (13.3%) for 9.25pts (+30.8%)
  • and under Ryan Rossa : 2/8 (25%) for 4.26pts (+53.3%)

OR... you could have simply backed Phil's 4/5 yr olds racing within 15 days of their last run for 20 winners from 84 (23.8% SR) and profits of 100.6pts (+119.7% ROI).

Meanwhile, jockey Ryan Rossa is still profitable to back blindly after nearly 500 rides, having won 60 of 468 (12.8% ROI) for profits of 39.9pts (+8.53% ROI), including 23 from 165 (13.9%) for 32.7pts (+19.8%) over trips of 6/7 furlongs, whilst this year alone in Class 6 handicaps over 6f to a mile for Phil McEntee, Ryan is 3 from 10 (30%) for 7.35pts (+73.5%), from which...

  • at odds of 5/2 to 6/1 : 3/6 (50%) for 11.35pts (+189.2%)
  • on the Flat : 2/5 (40%) for 7.93pts (+158.6%)
  • here at Yarmouth : 2/5 (40%) for 7.93pts (+158.6%)
  • on good to form ground : 2/5 (40%) for 7.93pts (+158.6%)
  • and here at Yarmouth on good to firm ground at odds of 5/2 to 6/1 : 2/2 (100%) for 10.93pts (+546.5%)...

...suggesting...a 1pt win bet on Emily Goldfinch 9/2 BOGa price available from Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th July 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

3.10 Bath : Archimedes @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, lost 2nd and no extra towards finish)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

7.45 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Deeds Not Words @ 7/2 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 6 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

OK, bear with me here, as some of you might have noticed that this 7 yr old gelding is currently on 13-month/16-race losing run, so that's got to end soon, surely?

All joking apart, now that he's tumbled in the weights, he has shown some signs of a return to previous form, beaten by just two lengths in a higher grade than this two starts ago at Newbury, before finishing fourth at Wolverhampton nine days ago.

In that Wolverhampton contest, he fared best of the hold-up horses and was possibly a little unlucky to be hampered at a crucial time, just as he was winding up for a run, so to come here off a career low mark, some 12lbs below that last win, could just be the right time to get back to winning ways.

He has won 6 of 15 races when sent off at 4/1 or shorter, so the market will be a good indicator of his chances, he's also 3 from 9 in this grade and John Egan has already ridden him to victory.

And since 2009 in Class 4 to 6 Flat & A/W handicaps, Michael Wigham's horses on losing streaks of more than 5 but less than 25 races and now racing off a lower mark than the one they last won off are 14 from 67 (20.9% SR) for 39.7pts (+59.2% ROI), including...

  • on the Flat : 7/28 (25%) for 20.6pts (+73.5%)
  • 7 yr olds are 5/22 (22.7%) for 20.7pts (+94.2%)
  • and those now rated 8 to 15lbs lower than their last winning mark are 5/21 (23.8%) for 14.9pts (+71%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Deeds Not Words @ 7/2 BOGa price available from Bet365, SkyBet & UniBet at 6.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th June 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

3.20 Chelmsford : Danzay @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Held up mid-division, one pace when switched outside over 1f out, soon ridden, went 3rd and kept on inside final furlong, not pace to trouble front pair)

We continue with Thursday's...

4.10 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glencadam Master @ 3/1 BOG non-runner heavily backed to as low as 7/4 in places, then withdrawn at 9.18am Reason: Self Cert (Not Eaten Up)

A 9-runner, Class 4 handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good To Firm worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding is making just his 7th start today and just his third at this trip, having won on his first attempt before finishing as a runner-up LTO 12 days ago. He was headed late on in the piece on soft ground it is hoped/expected that quicker conditions here will help, as should the change of jockey, which is interesting.

The actual placing of this horse into this contest and the associated conditions drew me to the selection rather than his won past form and it all centres around the trainer John Gosden and his shy retiring jockey, a certain Mr Dettori. Let me explain more in numbers!

...over the last 30 days...

  • Mr Gosden is 25 from 83 (30.1% SR)
  • Mr Dettori is 9 from 34 (26.5%)
  • and together they are 6/15 (40%)

...the last fortnight...

  • trainer = 8/29 (27.6%)
  • jockey = 5/13 (38.5%)
  • together = 3/3 9100%)

and the last week?

  • trainer is 5/15 (33.3%)
  • jockey is 3/8 (37.5%)
  • together : 2/2 (100%)

Now, there are probably very few surprises there, but they do suggest that although both are in great form, they're better as a partnership.

Which now brings me to this horse in this race. John Gosden has three runners today, but only one here at Yarmouth, whilst Frankie makes the admittedly relatively short journey to the seaside for just this one ride : he has nothing else anywhere today. I might be overplaying that angle, but  who knows? After all it's only a Class 4 handicap worth less than £6k!

Yarmouth has been very good for Mr Gosden over the years and since the start of the 2015 campaign, his runners are 16 from 43 (37.2% SR) for 31.7pts profit (+73.7 ROI), from which...

  • on good to firm : 14/29 (48.3%) for 38.2pts (+111.5%)
  • males : 11/26 (42.3%) for 16.2pts (+62.2%)
  • 3 yr olds : 10/21 (47.6%) for 32.3pts (+153.8%)
  • Class 4 : 6/21 (28.6%) for 2.6pts (+12.4%)
  • at 7/2 and shorter : 12/19 (63.2%) for 14.9pts (+78.4%)
  • over the 1m C&D : 6/19 (31.6%) for 12pts (+63%)
  • in handicaps : 5/12 (41.7%) for 30.5pts (+254.5%)
  • ridden by Frankie Dettori : 7/10 (70%) for 7.93pts (+79.3%)
  • John's only runner at the track that day : 4/10 (40%) for 12pts (+120%)
  • Frankie's only ride at the track that day : 3/3 9100%) for 2.48pts (+82.7%)
  • and John's only runner at the track & ridden by Frankie = 1/1 (100%) for 0.48pts (+48%)

And this simple stripped back approach is enough to satisfy me today...

...and reinforces the placing of...a 1pt win bet on Glencadam Master @ 3/1 BOGwhich was widely available at 6.10pm on Wednesday evening, although Ladbrokes were slightly better at 10/3  BOG for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

4.55 Wolverhampton : Star Ascending @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (in touch, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace)

We kick off the new month via Tuesday's...

4.15 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ramblow @ 9/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 5,  7f Fillies Handicap (4yo+) on Good To Soft worth£3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old mare is in decent form right now, having finished 112 in her last three outings and was only beaten by three quarters of a length when last seen 33 days ago. That was over 8.5 furlongs at Wolverhampton off a mark of 62.

She now drops back in trip and jockey Nicola Currie is back in the saddle (she didn't ride LTO, but did ride the two recent wins) and she takes 5lbs off a mark already 3lbs lower for the switch back to turf, so we're effectively 8lbs better off and a shorter trip! So, providing she handles the conditions today, she could potentially be very well treated at the weights.

She's only won twice in her career so far, but she's 2 from 6 at 7/8 furlongs and 2/2 under Nicola Currie. Both wins have come this year, in fields of 8-11 runners whilst wearing cheekpieces and one win was at this Class 5 level.

And the class of the race is quite pertinent, as her trainer Mick Appleby is a dab hand at winning such contests and is profitable to follow in Class 5 Flat handicaps with 55 winners from 443 (12.4% SR) providing followers with 420.9pts profit at a 95% ROI since 2010 and with today's race in mind, the following dozen angles are also profitable for those not wanting to back all 443 qualifiers...

  • in races worth less than £4,000 : 52/418 (12.4%) for 422.65pts (+101.1%)
  • those beaten by further than a neck LTO are 52/381 (13.7%) for 462.45pts (+121.4%)
  • those rated (OR) 56 to 70 are 43/353 (12.2%) for 446pts (+126.4%)
  • those who last ran 11 to 90 days earlier are 43/307 (14%) for 453.75pts (+147.8%)
  • those racing in midweek (Tues-Thurs) are 34/222 (15.3%) for 448.6pts (+202.1%)
  • those racing over trips of 6 to 9 furlongs are 27/202 (13.4%) for 386.8pts (+191.5%)
  • those now rated (OR) 2 to 6lbs lower than LTO are 17/120 (14.2%) for 388.8pts (+324%)
  • those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 19/100 (19%) for 69.12pts (+69.1%)
  • those dropping in trip by 1 to 2 furlongs are 14/78 (17.9%) for 73.48pts (+94.2%)
  • those racing at this 7f trip are 8/51 (15.7%) for 53.25pts (+104.4%)
  • those ridden by a jockey claiming 5lbs are 6/44 (13.6%) for 25.47pts (+57.9%)
  • and those sent here to Yarmouth are 5 from 38 (13.2%) for 20.66pts (+54.4%)

You can, of course, then combine some of the above to make micros for yourself, but I'll leave it here for now...

...by placing...a 1pt win bet on Ramblow @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Monday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2017

Wednesday's Result :

5.15 Beverley - Regal Mirage @ 11/4 BOG - 5th at 6/4 : Led, headed over 7f out, chased leaders, faded final furlong...

Thursday's pick goes in the...

6.00 Yarmouth

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Whosyourhousemate @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Still unexposed after just three runs, all of which have seen this 3 yr old make the frame (313) and far from disgraced last time out 12 days ago, as he was coming off the back of a 137 day break and running on unseasonably (not sure it that's a real word!) soft ground. Having had 2 runs on the A/W, I'd suggest he'll prefer the quicker ground today and he's entitled to come on for having had that pipe opener recently.

Stats wise, he fits perfectly into one of my stored microsystems, whose general rules are as follows...UK Flat / April-September / 3 yr olds / 7f to 1m 1.5f / top 3 finish in each of last 3 runs / 2nd or 3rd LTO 11-30 days ago.

That might seem a little contrived to the naked eye, but there are actually 662 such horses since the start of the 2012 season, of which 148 (22.4% SR) have been winners generating level stakes profits of 263.3pts at an ROI of 39.8%.

Of those 662 qualifiers...

  • those running on Good to Firm ground are 60/269 (22.3%) for 103pts (+38.3%)
  • those who won two starts ago are 58/245 (23.7%) for 174.2pts (+71.1%)
  • and here at Yarmouth : 5/17 (29.4%) for 5.65pts (+33.2%)

It's also worth adding that trainer Ed Vaughan's Flat runners are 25/133 (18.8% SR) for 96.7pts (+72.7% ROI) over the last three campaigns, including of interest/relevance today...

  • over 5.5f to 1m2f : 24/103 (23.3%) for 125.1pts (+121.5%)
  • in handicaps : 20/95 (21.1%) for 109.8pts (+115.5%)
  • on Good to firm ground : 13/64 (20.3%) for 23.9pts (+37.3%)
  • 3 yr olds : 13/47 (27.7%) for 38.7pts (+82.3%)
  • those with just 2 or 3 previous outings : 6/25 (24%) for 18.4pts (+73.6%)
  • at Class 4 : 8/24 (33.3%) for 91.5pts (+381.2%)
  • and those ridden by today's jockey, a friend of Geegeez, Adam "Biscuit" Beschizza are 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.1pts (+178.4%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Whosyourhousemate @ 7/2 BOG which was available with Bet365 and Ladbrokes at 5.50pm on Wednesday with plenty of 10/3 BOG quoted elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th June 2017

Monday's Result :

3.00 Ayr : Haymarket @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 2/1 Tracked leading pair, went 2nd 7f out, ridden and every chance 2f out, no extra in 3rd over 1f out.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.45 Yarmouth...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Excel Again @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

Three runs so far for this 3 yr old colt, all over the 1m trip and never out of the frame (313) and was only beaten by a length last time out, when making his Turf debut 18 days ago. His sole win to date came on the only previous occasion that he was ridden by today's jockey Martin Harley.

The fact they're 1/1 together makes me happy that they're reunited, but even more so because rides well here at Yarmouth, having won 20 of his 121 (16.5% SR) previous races here, recording level stakes profits of some 39.4pts (+32.6% ROI) along the way, from which he is 15/90 (16.6%) for 40.8pts (+45.4%) in handicap contests.

Further statistical evidence also points to a return to the winners' enclosure for Excel Again today with the following at play today...

...2012-17 / UK Flat / 7f to 8.5f / 3 yr olds / top 3 finish in each of last three starts / 2nd or 3rd LTO 6 to 30 days ago...

So, basically, form horses who didn't quite win LTO and these runners are more prevalent that you'd think with 672 of them fitting the bill over the past 5.5 seasons. 155 (23.1% SR) of them have won, returning profits of 275.1pts (+40.9% ROI), including...

  • on Good to Firm ground : 63/264 (23.9%) for 106.8pts (+40.5pts)
  • those who won their penultimate outing : 55/240 (22.9%) for 148.9pts (+62%)
  • and here at Yarmouth : 4/15 (26.7%) for 4.97pts (+33.1%)

...quantifying...a 1pt win bet on Excel Again5/1 BOG which was quite widely available at 7.25pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!